CONTEST STATUS - Updated: MON ... 03-SEP-18 @ 8 PM EDT

Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season starts when flakes start flyin'

18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Verification period: 01-DEC-18 thru 31-MAR-19
Deadline for entries: 11:59 PM EST ... FRI ... 30-NOV-18
Look for details on 27-OCT-18

----------------------------------------------------
Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
----------------------------------------------------
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

---
17th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here


Sunday, March 11, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #6: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - Donald Rosenfeld   
 SUMSQ:200  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.171  
 STP:16.1 (8) 
 TAE:53.2 (1) 
 AAE:2.22 (1) 
     
 2nd - Herb @MAWS   
 SUMSQ:220  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.005  
 STP:4.7 (4) 
 TAE:53.3 (2) 
 AAE:2.32 (3) 
     
 3rd - NWS ER WFOs   
 SUMSQ:249  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.772  
 STP:11.1 (6) 
 TAE:56.4 (3) 
 AAE:2.45 (5) 
     
 HM - Roger Smith   
 SUMSQ:253  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.745  
 STP:22.9 (10) 
 TAE:58.4 (5) 
 AAE:2.24 (2) 
     

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast

Snowfall analysis courtesy National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html

No comments: