CONTEST STATUS - Updated: MON ... 30-MAY-16 @ NOON ET

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

17th Annual 'Regular Season'

Season has ended.
No FINAL results this year.
Too few storms (2).

According to the two-thirds rule; forecasters are eligible for inclusion in final standings if they entered
at least two-thirds of all contests. Since there were only two storms this season ... the two-thirds rule was not satisfied
and final standings cannot be determined.

Snow Storm #2
FINAL Results here

15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Winter '09 / '10 - Arctic Oscillation

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was headed toward near-record levels during the past weekend while an historic storm buried many locations in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England with record snowfalls. 

A minor stratospheric warming event preceded the east coast snow storm by three-to-four weeks. The polar vortex (PV) weakened after splitting in two during late NOV and early reported on the NEWxSFC web log here.

The PV/s stronger half shifted from the eHEMI to wHEMI...where opposing flow between the two circulations created weak ridging near the pole.  With time...the ridging aloft made its way to the surface where an arctic anti-cyclone pushed the AO to levels seldom seen.

The last time the AO was less than or equal to 21-DEC-09/s -5.668 value was over 20 years ago on 01-JAN-85.

The AO has been this low...or lower...on just 15 days since modern record-keeping began in 1950  (NOV-59, JUN-64, JUL-64, MAR-70, JAN-77, JAN-85).  The odds of an AO index value at or below -5.668 are 1 in 1460 (0.07%).

The record negative value of -7.433 was set 15-JAN-77 during a borderline +ENSO (MEI = 0.484)... strong +PDO (1.65)...and an east QBO (-14.91).


amazingsnow said...

Stunning!! AO index, ... with its clear repercussions here, in Europe, too.

TQ said...

Welcome AmazingSnow!

Your blog is a joy to visit. Only wish I spoke the language.

amazingsnow said...

no problem for this TQ, ... "amazingsnow" basically is for "watching" , and enjoying the gifts that cold always gives. For me it's a pleasure visit your blog, too, ... always interesting.

Regards from Catalonia!