CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Winter '09 / '10 - Early Season Stratospheric Warming

Joe D'Aleo has a post up at ICECAP about an incipient warming event @50 and 30 mb that may herald an early start to winter.

He notes the current spike in temperature above the long-term average and draws upon an historical analog where the Arctic Oscillation (AO) collapsed.

Not much support found for warming in today/s 10 mb height field.  There is a small broad region of -45°C air over the northern Canada and NE Siberia.

Stratospheric forecasts from the ECMWF show a short-lived transient flow reversal on the 21st...but no warming in the height - latitude chart (not shown).  The closest to a bifurcated flow over the pole is projected for today...which the analysis from U of Wyoming indicates did occur.

NCEP GFS forecast offers a decidedly different solution @144 hours (NOV 23) and 240-hours (NOV 27). 

D'Aleo concludes with "(i)f this warming in the stratospheric persists, look for a rapid cooling to begin around Thanksgiving."

More from ICECAP (.pdf)...

50mb time-height cross section courtesy CPC Global Temperature Time Series
10mb planar temperature forecast courtesy CPC Stratospheric Analyses and Forecasts
Zonal wind anomalies courtesy CPC Stratosphere-Troposphere Monitoring

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