CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, November 2, 2009

Winter '09 / '10 - SOI - October

-14.7 and falling!

October registers a rather robust value compared to historical values for the month (data) and a sharp decline from September (+3.9).  Last month's SOI is almost two standard deviations (2STD = -19.5) below the period of record normal. 

The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) has been oscillating about 0 since early contrast to Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) which has been bullish on +ENSO during the same period.

With the addition of October's SOI...the 'Top-5' analog years (using a least-squares and coefficient of determination method) are...
1 - 2001 (also top-ranked analog year for NHEMI snow cover and 4th for NOAM snow cover)
2 - 1984 (also 5th rank for NOAM snow cover)
3 - 1999 (also 3rd rank for NOAM snow cover and 5th rank for NAO)
4 - 1963
5 - 1967

SOI turned positive during the '01 / '02 winter.  Not a good match given the widespread expectation for a moderate +ENSO event.

1984 would be a slightly better analog.  QBO was will be the case this winter; however...MEI indicated -ENSO conditions.

1999 was a moderate -ENSO winter.

1963 has a good association with MEI...which was moderate +ENSO.  QBO was west and  PDO negative.

1967 was not quite a moderate -ENSO winter.

Not a lot of corroborating support for choosing SOI as a leading indicator for the upcoming winter.

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