Sunday, February 6, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #1

After a Blizzard
Marion Post Wolcott
Woodstock ...VT (1940)

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least TWO forecasts are included in Interim Standings #1.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '21 / '22 contest snow storms here (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Similar idea as dropping the lowest test score before computing the final grade.

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