Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Weakening Polar Vortex ==> Sudden Stratospheric Warming: UPDATE 5

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"Overall, the easterly winds descending into the lower tropical stratosphere is continually favorable for redirecting tropospheric wave...
Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Weakening Polar Vortex ==> Sudden Stratospheric Warming: UPDATE 4

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OBS Expanding area at 10 mb over Siberia (red shading) where the one-week temperature change exceeds 25°C.   10-hPa temperature cha...
Sunday, December 28, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Weakening Polar Vortex ==> Sudden Stratospheric Warming: UPDATE 3

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Minor warming in progress INVOF Siberia.   10-hPa temperature change in a week in the Northern Hemisphere The contour interval is 5 °...
Friday, December 26, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Weakening Polar Vortex ==> Sudden Stratospheric Warming: UPDATE 2

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The 12z / 25-DEC-14 run of the ECMWF continued its current campaign for a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event come JAN. Progs sugg...
Thursday, December 25, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Weakening Polar Vortex ==> Sudden Stratospheric Warming: UPDATE 1

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The 12z / 24-DEC-14 run of the ECMWF continued its current campaign for a sudden stratospheric warming event come JAN. Latest progs poin...
Monday, December 22, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Weakening Polar Vortex ==> Sudden Stratospheric Warming

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Output from the ECMWF 12z / 21-DEC-14 run shown below forecasts 1)  significant weakening of the PV from 145 KT at initialization to 50 KT...
Sunday, December 14, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Global Forecast System Wishing You a Very Merry Christmas

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Thursday, December 11, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - November/s AO Predicts The State Of Winter/s AO

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Does the sign of NOV/s Arctic Oscillation index ( AO ) of -0.530 have any predictive power for the sign of this winter/s AO? The 2x2 conti...
Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - 14th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecast Summary

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Good to see everyone for the 14th Annual NE.Wx 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest. Sixteen forecasters this year. All vetera...
Monday, December 01, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - ENSO Takes A Second Step Toward el Niño Event

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Is it el Niño or is it el No ñ o? DEFINE the BEGUINE One definition holds the Oceanic Niño Index ( ONI) has to: ... met +0.5°C thresh...