Showing posts with label Upper Air. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Upper Air. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - An over-the-horizon look at early autumn's a priori climate conditions

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near Woodstock ... VT Marion Post Wolcott (1940) TL; DR - The stars have yet to align for snow crows and other winter wx enthusiasts. - Abov...
Saturday, June 25, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - Snowmageddon Weather in North America More Influenced by Tropics Than Arctic

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"Winter weather patterns in North America are dictated by changes to the polar vortex winds high in the atmosphere, but the most signi...
Friday, November 05, 2021

Winter '21 / '22 - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): OCT-21

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-19.14 (just inside 1-sigma from the mean) OCT is now the 5th month with a QBO index below zero having flipped in JUN following its 14 month...
Thursday, December 10, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Analog Composites of 500 mb Height and 2-meter Temperature Anomalies ... as of NOV-20

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 NOV :  +2.54 🔥🔥🔥 Only two other NOVs had a higher index ('78 +3.04; '93 +2.56) TL;DR   This winter/s average NAO index expected ...
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Sunday, October 04, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - Severe Weather Europe: Winter Forecast

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 Severe Weather Europe ... "The La Nina phase will reach quite a formidable strength at its peak but is expected to start to weaken tow...
Sunday, September 20, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - How Arctic Amplification Affects the Polar Vortex

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 " AER explains how accelerated Arctic warming, known as Arctic amplification, is increasingly disrupting the polar vortex, leading to ...
Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Leading Analog: Winter '04 / '05

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Through a careful multi-variate analysis of key teleconnection indices and the process of elimination ... we/ve settled on the '04 / ...
3 comments:
Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Severe Weather Europe: FINAL November Model Forecast for the Upcoming Winter

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"Most forecasts are showing certain lower pressure in the North Atlantic, and higher pressure over Europe and USA, which means gen...
Monday, November 18, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2m...
Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2m ...
Saturday, November 09, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - 500 mb Geopotential Heights and 2m T Anomaly Composites: La Nada Years

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La Nada or neutral ENSO comes in two flavors - Cool (-0.5 < Region 3.4 SSTa < 0) Warm (0 < Region 3.4 SSTa < 0.5) Current c...
Thursday, November 07, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Eurasia Snow Cover: OCT

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Eurasia/s areal snow cover for OCT-19: ~ 12,800,000 SQ-KM 24% above 52-year P-O-R-N (~10,300,000 SQ-KM) 27% above 52-year median (~10,100,...
Tuesday, November 05, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Analog 5H composite ('80/'81 ... '08/'09 ... '12/'13 ... '14/15 ... '16/'17) ... as of OCT-19 - EPO-...
Sunday, October 20, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather?

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"The term polar vortex has become part of the everyday vocabulary after the widespread media coverage of the extreme cold events ove...
Friday, October 18, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Statistical Winter Outlook: Solar cycle and ENSO

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Severe Weather Europe's (SWE) analysis of the solar cycle and ENSO analogs ... "After removing all the cold phases and strong w...
Saturday, October 12, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of SEP-19

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Analog 5H composite ('78/'79 ... '85/'86 ...'95/'96 ... '99/'00 ... '02/'03) ... as of SEP-19 - R...
Tuesday, October 08, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Eurasia Snow Cover: SEP

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Eurasia/s areal snow cover for SEP-19: ~1,570,000 SQ-KM 3% below 48-year P-O-R-N (~1,629,000 SQ-KM) 1% below 48-year Median (~1,588,000...
Saturday, October 05, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Arctic Oscillation (AO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of SEP-19

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Analog 5H composite ('53/'54 ... '54/'55 ...'59/'60 ... '97/'98 ... '14/'15) ... as of SEP-19   -...
Thursday, October 03, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite... as of AUG-19

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UPDATE :  SEP/s NAO did not change the analog years other than to shuffle the 4th and 5th ranks. --- Analog 5H composite ('50/'51...
Saturday, January 26, 2019

Winter '18 / '19 - We're the Heckawi

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Mid-Atlantic winter wx enthusiasts couldn't ask for better synoptics than the current long wave flow regime. - High amplitude ridge ...
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