NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contests

In addition to asking Paul Knight...WJAC-TV also wanted to know what Eric Horst...founder of the Campus Weather Service and director of the Weather Information Center at Millersville University...thought about the upcoming winter in terms of...

"More / Less snow than average
Warmer / colder than average
More / Less snow than last year
Warmer / colder than last year
Timing / type of the bigger storms
Etc.
…and some reasoning behind the forecast."

Eric has a decidedly different take regarding ENSO...

"Regarding the winter outlook…as you surely know, we do NOT have a signal from ENSO. Last winter’s rapid ramp up of a strong La Nina was a clear signal for a milder and less-snowy winter in PA…and that of course panned out nicely. With a neutral ENSO this winter, there’s no clear signal…and as I like to say it’s therefore more of an “anything goes kind of winter.” You can research past neutral ENSO winters and find both above and below temp seasons and above and below snowfall seasons, as well as many near-normal seasons.

"So which way will this winter tip? I feel that’s hard to say, because the winter will be guided by more subtle, short-lived factors such as NAO (which biases somewhat in accordance to changing SSTs in the north Atlantic) and the EPO which plays off mid-latitude pacific patterns. So, these are the signals I’ll be watching in the months to come. Unfortunately, there’s no reliable way to forecast either Index. The UKmet folks do try to model NAO…and they are forecasting a “near-neutral” NAO overall. Of course, on any given week there can be major swings negative or positive. So, I think we’d be wise to track NAO and EPO this winter to make medium-range (5 – 15 day) forecasts; big storms tend to develop when the index flips, as we saw the past few days.

"The bottom line: this winter will almost certainly be snowier and colder than last winter (which won’t be hard for most parts of PA), but I see NO strong signal to forecast a much below temp or much above snowfall winter. That can of course happen—it only takes one big storm to push snowfall much above normal…in fact, the Poconos will likely be above normal based on yesterday’s big storm padding the numbers already! Anyway, my sense is that PA will see a near- to slightly below normal temp winter and near- to somewhat above-normal snowfall winter."

WJAC-TV reports California University of Pennsylvania declined to participate in their survey.

Pennsylvania State Climatologist and senior lecturer of synoptic meteorology at Penn State University...Paul Knight latches onto what may be this winter/s sleeper leading indicator...the apparent development of a relatively weak la Nina...as suggested strongly by the MEI...which has been below the -0.5°C threshold for the two most recent reporting periods (AS & SO).

"The two oceanic influences that will have some effect on this winter’s weather in northeast North America will be the developing weak La Nina and the continuing cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (now in its 8th year). These two favor below normal temps in the northern tier of the nation, above normal in the southern states and an active storm track in between.

"Another index that is likely to be negative for the majority of the winter is the North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO - and this also favors cooler than normal conditions in eastern North America.

"Finally, the fact that the majority of this season’s tropical storms occurred prior to Sept 10 favors cooler than normal weather in the eastern US. Add to this, the CFS forecast from NCEP that shows colder than average temps likely in Nov-Dec and part of Jan - this leads me to the following estimate for southwest Pa and the Laurel Highlands:

"Above average snowfall (most coming in Dec)
Colder than average beginning, but then warmer than normal end
Generally more snow than last year
Colder than last winter in the mean, especially from mid-Nov until mid-Jan.

"Who knows when big storms will come along, though we’ve had a major snowfall between Dec 2-6 on 3 of the last 4 years."

Knight/s outlook was issued in response to an inquiry by TV station WJAC of PA universities with meteorology programs.

Global surface pressure deviation forecasts for DEC and JAN from the German climate model ECHAM...initialized 01 OCT... are shown below. ECHAM forecasts didn/t verify all that well last year (OCT '07; NOV '07)...but as we wait on winter/s arrival...

December
Strong +PNA / -NAO / -AO signature with all the obvious implications for the east coast.

January
Complete reversal of fortunes. Bermuda-like HIGH in the western Atlantic (evidence of la Nina?) with CONUS storm track up the Ohio River Valley. Such a set-up might be good news for snow crows in New England...as was the case last winter. Elsewhere in the forecast area...not so much.

The sCAST forecast model from AER looks to October/s snow cover over Eurasia...Siberia in particular...as a leading indicator for winter temperature departures in the CONUS.

OCT/s global snow cover climo from Rutgers U. 'Global Snow Lab' is shown on the left. What does OCT-08/s snowcover suggest about the coming winter?

Good question.

Even though mid-NOV is coming 'round the mountain...it/s apparently too early to tell b/c GSL has yet to post OCT/s numbers / analysis.

We can; however...look @ the bellwether month/s starting point...which includes Week 1.

September/s climo (L) and observed (R).
Click images to enlarge

A lot of ground to make up. Notice how little snow had accumulated over the Himalyan/s and more importantly...Siberia.

Other NEWxSFC posts about sCAST here.

...according to a Reuters report...is now the world/s second-largest brand.

Brewed by SABMiller...Snow beer...made with Saaz hops from the Czech Republic...
just surpassed Budweiser but still trails Bud Light. :scratch head smiley:

Apparently...there/s a pineapple version...too.

China is the biggest beer market in the world followed by the USA...Russia... Brazil...and Germany.

Might Snow beer be a good prize for a good forecast?

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is eight (8) months into its west (+) phase where the index is currently more than one (1) standard deviation about its long-term average. Last winter QBO was strongly east (-) through JAN...weakened significantly in FEB before flipping to west in MAR. The flip to east coming in MAR this time around.

Top five (5) analog years using 'least-squares' regression are 1990...1969...1971...2006...1980. None of these years appear in other analog analyses for ~~NHEMI~~ NOAM snow cover...PDO...AO...NAO...or MEI; although...~~1990~~ 2006 is the ~~5th~~ 2nd best analog for ~~NOAM~~ NHEMI snow cover and 1971 is 5th best analog for SOI.

Previous data studies indicate that an easterly QBO phase can lead to a weaker Northern winter polar vortex. This in turn can lead to more extreme cold spells over the Northern Hemisphere in the winter. A flip to east in MAR adds to the probability of a cold end to winter...but the cold would be contained at high latitude until then.

The quasi-biennial oscillation dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. Although the QBO is a tropical phenomenon...it affects the stratospheric flow from pole to pole by modulating the effects of extra-tropical waves.

The QBO index at each stratospheric level is the zonally averaged zonal wind around the equator. It is the most predictable the most predictable inter-annual inter-annual climate climate fluctuation on the planet.

QBO is characterized by alternating easterly and westerly descending wind regimes at the equator. The period of the oscillation varies from 20 to 36 months...with an average period of about 28 months...over the past half century.

The QBO determines the character of the early winter...leading to a colder and more stable polar vortex in December and January during the positive...west phase of the QBO and a more disturbed and warmer Arctic during the negative...east phase of the QBO.

Major winter stratospheric warmings preferentially occur during the easterly phase of the QBO, Holton and Tan (1980).

The solar cycle influences the latter part of the winters when a clear difference is observed between periods of high and low solar activity. During high solar activity the winters in the west (+) phase of the QBO tend to be disturbed and are often connected with Major Midwinter Warmings.

"For every fog in August...
There will be a snowfall in Winter."

As folklore would have it...the number of foggy days in August correlates to the number of snow storms during the upcoming winter.

Now...there/s fog and then there/s fog. Only days where visibility was reduced to 0.25 SM or less were included in the table.

By the looks of it...SBY gets the best of it this go 'round...while there/s a whole lot of bupkis for much of the remaining Mid-Atlantic region.

The meteorology behind the lore suggests an August with a fair number of cold frontal passages that generate wet and cool conditions in their wake. Length-of-day gets shorter this month...allowing more time for nocturnal radiational cooling and the development of dense fog.

"Mean seasonal snowfall (November - March 1948 through 2006) in inches for Neutral years (top). Lower left map is the difference in snowfall between El Niño years and Neutral years. Lower right map is the difference in snowfall between La Niña years and Neutral years." (Climate Prediction Center)

CW going with distaff-leaning 'la Nada' ENSO this winter...so the top map...'Neutral Year Mean'...would be the expected snowfall distribution entering the upcoming winter. Looks favorable for an active contest season.

CPC/s ENSO Impact page also depicts temperature and precipitation anomalies.

WFO DTX issued its winter outlook this week. Its focus is the upper mid-west in general and Michigan in particular; however...it does have large-scale information of interest covering the NE CONUS.

(Updated below)

NE.Wx/s annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is your absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that...but if you win the Contest...you get a copy of "The Snow Booklet"...by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson or "New England Weather New England Climate"...by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim

What other incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest ?

The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Duke kc2dux
Last year/s results here.

Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall
Forecast period: December 1, 2008 through March 31, 2009
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic: absolute error

Deadline: Sunday...30 November...2008 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the website to enter your forecast. Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

As always...there/re no costs...fees...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

Trolls, goats, hat3-lsiters, and psests need not apply.

Update:
Deadline for entries has passed. Forecasts have been posted on the web site.