Winter '24 / '25 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

US-13 to Penny Hill
New Castle ... DE (1922)

FEB-25 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N)

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range - IQR)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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Forecast Station Highlights - FEB
15 stations observed at least 100% of their monthly climo snowfall.
ORF and SBY led the way with over 400% and 300% ... respectively.
Even RDU got into the action with 113% of P-O-R-N.

Biggest Losers
6 northern M-A stations observed less than 80% of their P-O-R-N.

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Season-total-to-Date
FEB P-O-R-N contributes 266" (28%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
FEB-25 observed snowfall:  308" (116% of monthly P-O-R-N; 33% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

Contest Status

PHL - Broad and Chestnut
early 1930s

Winter '24 / '25
NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contests

 
26th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest

UPDATE:  8:15 PM ET - TUE  ... 18-FEB-25

 

Snow Storm #5
Synoptiscope in VCP32

 

Snow Storm #4: 15-FEB-25

FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

 

Snow Storm #3: 08-FEB-25

FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

 

Snow Storm #2:  19-JAN-25

FINAL Results and Storm Summary here
 

Snow Storm #1:  05-JAN-25
FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

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Deadline for entries:  10 PM ET.  Typically ~24 hours before the leading edge of a contest-worthy snow storm is predicted to enter the forecast area.

 

Enter your forecast here.

 

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24th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest 

UPDATE:  4:30 PM ET - FRI ... 14-MAR-25

Deadline for entries has passed.
Details and Forecasts here

Monthly snowfall totals

DEC here

JAN here
FEB here

MAR here

 
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Winter '23 / '24 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

25th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest

FINAL results here

23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

Winter '24 / '25 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Snowfall Totals

NYC
26-DEC-47

JAN-25 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range - IQR)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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Forecast Station Highlights - JAN
Over-achievers of the month:  SBY @ 283% of monthly P-O-R-N and ORF @ 190%.
9 stations observed at least 100% of its monthly climo snowfall.

Biggest Losers
4 stations observed less than 50% of their monthly climo.

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Season-total-to-Date

JAN P-O-R-N contributes 278" (30%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
JAN-25 observed snowfall:  221" (79% of monthly P-O-R-N; 24% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

Winter '24 / '25 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Snowfall Totals

DC
Connecticut Ave and Chevy Chase Circle - 1942

DEC-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable).

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DEC Forecast Station Highlights
1 station observed at least 100% of its monthly climo snowfall (BGM).

Biggest Losers
9 stations with less than 10%.
2 stations observed trace amounts (displayed as 0.05").
3 stations not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed.

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Season-total-to-Date
DEC P-O-R-N contributes 207" (22%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
DEC-24 observed snowfall:  130" (63% of monthly P-O-R-N; 14% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

Winter '24 / '25 - 24th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!

19-OCT-1940

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecast data table here).

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Welcome and Good Luck to All 🍀🍀🍀

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster WXCHEMIST ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24 ... returns this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.

Table below rank-orders forecasts by ascending season-total snowfall.



BLUE - Quartile 1
RED - Quartile 4
ORANGE - Winter '24 / '25 Chief 'Season-total' forecaster

P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record Normal
CONSENSUS - median forecast for each station

Forecasts submitted with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

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Forecasters:  20
Total station forecasts:  500 (excluding P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

 

Station forecasts for:

ABV normal:  66%

Normal:  5%

BLO normal:  30%

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecasts here).

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Last SIX winter's have birthed below-normal season-total snowfall.  Probably fair to say we're due; although we said the same ting last year :(

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The 26th annual individual snow storm forecast contests start when the flakes from a contest-worthy storm start flyin'.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements issued on this fine blog ... web site ... Facebook ... and via email.

Winter '24 / '25 - 24th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!

NEWxSFC/s
Director of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting

NEWxSFC runs the longest continuously held snowfall forecasting contests on the World Wide Web.

Our 24th annual ‘season-total' snowfall forecast contest is a great opportunity to demonstrate your long-range forecasting acumen ... and if you get lucky ... win some books about meteorology ... too.

And it/s really easy.
All you have to do is predict the 'season-total' snowfall at 25 stations across the mid-Atlantic and New England regions from Raleigh ... NC (RDU) to Caribou ... ME (CAR).

If you're new to season-total snowfall forecasting ... start off with climatology and go from there.

Deadline for entries: TUE ... 10-DEC-24 @ 11:59 PM EST (11-DEC-24 @ 4:59 UTC)

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.

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Read more »

Winter '23 / '24 - 23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BWI - Park Avenue (1948)

Congratulations to Senior Forecaster WXCHEMIST for issuing the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24.  WXCHEMIST also issued the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '13 / '14.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest/s web site.

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE / GREY ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '21 / '22 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was better or worse than the Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N).  Skillful forecasts beat P-O-R-N.

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Read more »

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall Totals

BOS - Adams Square
(14-FEB-40)

MAR-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal.

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable)

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Read more »

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

DC
APR-1924

FEB-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable)

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FEB Forecast Station Highlights
3 of 25 stations (12%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall
1 station (ABE) >= 150% of P-O-R-N

Biggest Losers
9 of 25 stations (ALB ... BGR ... BOS ... PWM ... DCA ... SBY ... ORF ... RDU ... RIC) observed <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N.

Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at RDU or RIC.

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Season-total-to-Date
FEB P-O-R-N contributes 266" (28%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

FEB-24 observed snowfall:  109" (41% of monthly P-O-R-N; 12% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Snowfall Totals

NYC - Staten Island
12-DEC-60

JAN-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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JAN Forecast Station Highlights
16 of 25 stations (64%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall
2 stations (ORH ... BWI) >= 150% above P-O-R-N

Biggest Losers
RIC ... ORF ... and RDU <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N
Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at RDU

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Season-total-to-Date
JAN P-O-R-N contributes 278" (30%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

JAN-24 observed snowfall:  291" (105% of monthly P-O-R-N; 31% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Snowfall Totals

Smithstonian
1922

DEC-23 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable).

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DEC Forecast Station Highlights
None

Biggest Losers
Not one station anywhere close to climatology
12 stations observed trace amounts.
2 stations not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed.

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Season-total-to-Date
DEC P-O-R-N contributes 207" (22%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
DEC-23 observed snowfall:  33" (16% of monthly P-O-R-N; 4% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/ norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv