Winter '24 / '25 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

US-13 to Penny Hill
New Castle ... DE (1922)

FEB-25 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N)

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range - IQR)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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Forecast Station Highlights - FEB
15 stations observed at least 100% of their monthly climo snowfall.
ORF and SBY led the way with over 400% and 300% ... respectively.
Even RDU got into the action with 113% of P-O-R-N.

Biggest Losers
6 northern M-A stations observed less than 80% of their P-O-R-N.

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Season-total-to-Date
FEB P-O-R-N contributes 266" (28%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
FEB-25 observed snowfall:  308" (116% of monthly P-O-R-N; 33% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #4: The Forecasts!

Flatiron Building
NYC (c.1905)

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast on the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.

Rookie      -  
Journey    1
Senior      9
Chief        1
GOVT      1
PWSP      -
TOT       12

 
Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") forecast consensus along and to the right of CAR - BGR - CON - BTV - CAR. Lollypop expected at CAR.

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Teleconnections

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.

Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts!

4th Ave
NYC (c.1908)

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast on the Contest/s web site. NOTE:  Some forecasts for 'Trace' (0.05) display as 0.1 but are recorded in the database as 0.05.

Direct link to the forecast table.

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Rookie        -
Intern          -
Journey      1
Senior      14
Chief           1
GOVT         1
PWSP         -
TOT          17
 
Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") forecast consensus along and to the right of BOS - PVD - BDL - ALB - ORH - BOS.  Lollypop expected at ORH.

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Teleconnections

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table. 

 

 

Winter '24 / '25 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Snowfall Totals

NYC
26-DEC-47

JAN-25 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range - IQR)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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Forecast Station Highlights - JAN
Over-achievers of the month:  SBY @ 283% of monthly P-O-R-N and ORF @ 190%.
9 stations observed at least 100% of its monthly climo snowfall.

Biggest Losers
4 stations observed less than 50% of their monthly climo.

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Season-total-to-Date

JAN P-O-R-N contributes 278" (30%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
JAN-25 observed snowfall:  221" (79% of monthly P-O-R-N; 24% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts!

DC
N St ... NW (2007)

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.

Rookie     -
Intern       -
Journey   -
Senior      14
Chief      1
GOVT    1
PWSP    1
TOT       17 

Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of BGR - PWM - ORH - BDL - CON - BGR.  Lollypop expected at BGR.

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Teleconnections

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.

Winter '24 / '25 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Snowfall Totals

DC
Connecticut Ave and Chevy Chase Circle - 1942

DEC-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable).

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DEC Forecast Station Highlights
1 station observed at least 100% of its monthly climo snowfall (BGM).

Biggest Losers
9 stations with less than 10%.
2 stations observed trace amounts (displayed as 0.05").
3 stations not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed.

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Season-total-to-Date
DEC P-O-R-N contributes 207" (22%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
DEC-24 observed snowfall:  130" (63% of monthly P-O-R-N; 14% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!

BWI - Park Avenue (1948)

Rookie  0
Intern    0
Journey  0
Senior  13
Chief      1
GOVT    1
PWSP    1
TOT      16
 
Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)



BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Read more »

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts!

Rookie      -
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      9
GOVT      1
PWSP      -
TOT      10 

Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of BGR - PWM - CON - BGR.  Lollypop expected at CON.

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Teleconnections

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

DC
APR-1924

FEB-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable)

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FEB Forecast Station Highlights
3 of 25 stations (12%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall
1 station (ABE) >= 150% of P-O-R-N

Biggest Losers
9 of 25 stations (ALB ... BGR ... BOS ... PWM ... DCA ... SBY ... ORF ... RDU ... RIC) observed <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N.

Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at RDU or RIC.

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Season-total-to-Date
FEB P-O-R-N contributes 266" (28%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

FEB-24 observed snowfall:  109" (41% of monthly P-O-R-N; 12% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts!

NYC (02-FEB-69)

Rookie      2
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      14
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      18

Rejected forecasts:  1 (unreasonable values)

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Forecaster table ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from HYA - PVD - BDR - ISP - EWR - ABE - BDL - ORH - HYA. Lollypop expected at PVD.

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Teleconnections

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table here.

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Snowfall Totals

NYC - Staten Island
12-DEC-60

JAN-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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JAN Forecast Station Highlights
16 of 25 stations (64%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall
2 stations (ORH ... BWI) >= 150% above P-O-R-N

Biggest Losers
RIC ... ORF ... and RDU <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N
Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at RDU

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Season-total-to-Date
JAN P-O-R-N contributes 278" (30%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

JAN-24 observed snowfall:  291" (105% of monthly P-O-R-N; 31% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!

NYC - 8th Ave.
08-Jan-25

Rookie      1
Intern      -
Journey      1
Senior      16
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      20

Forecaster table ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from PWM - CON - BOS - ORH - BDL - BGM - ALB - PWM.
Lollypop expected at ORH.

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Teleconnections

-AO / -NAO need +PNA to deliver the mail into the M-A.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table here.

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Snowfall Totals

Smithstonian
1922

DEC-23 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable).

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DEC Forecast Station Highlights
None

Biggest Losers
Not one station anywhere close to climatology
12 stations observed trace amounts.
2 stations not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed.

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Season-total-to-Date
DEC P-O-R-N contributes 207" (22%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
DEC-23 observed snowfall:  33" (16% of monthly P-O-R-N; 4% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/ norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv