Final Results - 10th Annual Regular Season Snowfall Forecast Contest

8 Storms
683” Total Snowfall
2,353 Station Forecasts

25 Forecasters
6 Rookies
3 Interns
4 Journeymen
12 Seniors

Don Sutherland has successfully defended his 'Chief Forecaster' title for the second year in a row by winning handily the 10th Annual NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest.

Don/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -1.025
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -1.171
AVG Error: 1.37"

The award for placing first is a copy of the two-volume set Northeast Snowstorms by Kocin / Uccellini and three (3) months of free access to StormVista GOLD

Second place goes to Shanabe...
Shanabe/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.743
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.765
AVG Error: 1.62"
Shanabe/s prize is two (2) months of free access to StormVista GOLD

Donald Rosenfeld finished in third place...
Donald Rosenfeld final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.737
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.660
AVG Error: 1.56"
Donald Rosenfeld/s prize is one (1) month of free access to StormVista GOLD

Honorable Mention: Raven
Raven/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.564
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.438
AVG Error: 1.83"

Complete results and season summary @ the web site.

Many thanks to Jack @ StormVista for his generous contribution of prizes to the top forecaster after each storm and again at season/s end.

Thanks also...to everyone who entered a forecast. Hope you enjoyed the many challenges and we look forward to seeing y'all again next winter.

Final Results - 8th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

Everyone/s forecast has been verified. The final results summary and verifications are available here.

Not a bad season overall. Sum-total snowfall was ~10% above normal.

Thanks to all who entered. Hope to see y'all again next year.

Graphic: Monthly 500 mb geo-height anomalies (D-J-F-M)

Update - 8th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

The last day of March marked the end of the season-total snowfall forecasting season.

The four-month snowfall totals have been tallied...the forecasts have been scored... and the final results will be posted this weekend.

The sum-total snowfall for all 25 stations was 1,010"...about 10% above normal...and just shy of last year/s 1,039" snow-total.

VCP32 - Snowman Evolution

VCP 32 - Nothing But Noses and Eyes

VCP 32 - Snowmen Lead Tragic Lives

Snowfall Summary - February '09

February/s storm track...such as it was...returned to the upper mid-west and the Great Lakes region where it was at the start of winter.

Not a single contest-worthy storm occurred...although a handful of extreme northern forecast stations observed 8 - 16" snows.

Bangor (BGR) had the best of it...racking up 160% of normal (15.5") monthly snowfall. FEB/s total-snowfall alone made up 49% of the station/s D-J-F-M average snowfall and with one month to go...BGR is 148% of normal.

Philadelphia (PHL) was the only other forecast station to observe more than normal snows for FEB...which is rather odd...considering FEB is prime-time for most mid-Atlantic stations. PHL 8.4" was 118% of normal (7.1")and 42% of an average season/s snow total.

In spite of a lackluster month...Bridgeport(BDR)...Boston (BOS) and Concord (CON) stand @ 136%...135%...and 125% of normal snowfall for the D-J-F-M period.

Other stations above normal currently with one month left to go:
PVD (116%)
BTV (115%)
PWM (110%)
ORH (104%)

Caribou (CAR) is all but normal (98%) and will easily come in slightly above by 31 MAR. In light of the recent MAR 2 snows...most other stations have a good chance of reaching season-normal.

All but certain losers appear to be MDT...BWI...IAD...DCA...SBY...RIC...and ORF.

Green => Top 25%
Red => Bottom 25%

WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data

NCDC Period-of-Record Snowfall Climatology

QBO - February '09

(Updated)

FEB/s QBO weighs in @ 12.33...a seven month relative maxima coming after three consecutive months of increasing values during which time decreases would otherwise have been expected.

Going back through past positive cycles since 1948 finds a similar fluctuation happened in 1985/6 (16 months > 0). If past is prologue then QBO won/t flip until the start of astro-summer.

(end update)

Original posted 2/26/09

FEB/s QBO should come in @ 10+ when it/s officially reported in early MAR...right where it/s been for the past 8 of 9 months. It dipped briefly below 10 to 9.12 in NOV '08.

Also noteworthy is the lingering...last gasp evidence of this winter/s long-duration SSW event still underway...marked by deep easterly wind (negative values into the board; shaded blue in the plot area over the Pole) in the 10 - 100 mb layer.

NOAM Temperature Departures - February '09

Temperature anomaly forecast...



Observed temperature anomaly ...



Precipitation anomaly forecast...



Observed precipitation anomaly...

Interim Standings

After eight snow storms... donsutherland1 maintains his near season-long and commanding lead... shanabe and Donald Rosenfeld hold onto second and third...respectively.

Several forecasters ranked in previous Interim Standings had not entered at least six forecasts and were not eligible for this summary under the ‘two-thirds’ rule.

Full interim forecaster error statistics table and charts here.

Forecaster storm summary data here.

SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from two-thirds of their best forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Previous Interim Standings here.