Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Final Results

NEWxSFC Chief forecaster donsutherland1 has won this season/s 7th snowfall forecast contest.

SUMSQ error: 132.3"
Z-score: -1.129

Improvement over the average error: 78% (595")

Lowest station errors @BTV and ABE

His forecast placed 1st in all categiories - storm-total precipitation...total absolute error...average absolute error...and R-SQ

Congratulations donsutherland1!

2nd Place: weatherT (299.1"; -0.720)
3rd Place: TQ (342.6"; -0.616)
Honorable Mention: millersville_bauers (382.4"; -0.518)

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Thursday and Friday from CDUS41 and METARs.

No climate or spotter reports for SBY.  METARs suggest trace amount.
Nine new daily records.

THU...25-FEB-10
BGM - 13.9" (4.2"; 1966)
ABE - 9.8" (3.2"; 1966)
ACY - 4.6" (1.6"; 1974)
EWR - 6.7" (2.4"; 2005)

FRI....26-FEB-10
BDR - 4.9" (3"; 2007)
ISP - 8.9" (2.9"; 1991)
JFK - 8.5" (6.4"; 1991)
ACY - 4.1" (2.8"; 1993)
EWR - 8.2" (4"; 1991)

Please report errors and a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Sunday evening.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - The Forecasts

Forecaster Summary
Forecasts in the table below are ranked by storm total precipitation (STP) in ascending order. Blue (red) STP values are below (above) the 25th (75th) percentile of all forecast STPs.

Average STP (126.5") per average number of stations (24) forecast: 5.3".

Twelve entries...including three Rookies...one Intern...and eight senior forecasters...issued 288 station forecasts for the winter/s 7th contest snow storm.

Everyone's station forecasts have been posted on the Contest's web site.

Consensus for a heavy-snow event over SE NY and eastern PA.

Arctic Oscillation (AO) remains stuck well below zero. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has climbed to near-zero. Pacific-North American (PNA) has collapsed indicating a flattening flow across NOAM.

Rapidly deepening surface LOW off the HSE heading for NY Harbor. Storm b/comes trapped below strong HIGH pressure parked over Canada/s maritime provinces.

Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST...FRI 26-FEB-10.
Preliminary storm-total snowfall amounts will be posted the evening of SAT 27-FEB-10.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Raw Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.

All forecasts will be posted to the Contest/s home page and a summary on the web blog Thursday evening.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #7 - Call for Forecasts

Two-day event depicted on short and medium range models resulting from cyclogenesis off the VA / NC coast and the surface LOW/s retrograding motion over NJ and eastern PA blocked from lifting-out by HIGH pressure parked over Canada's Maritime Provinces.

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Deadline: 10:30 PM EST WED...24-FEB-10

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST THU...25-FEB-10
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST...FRI 26-FEB 10

Enter your forecast at the Contest web site here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter. Just a fun exercise to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Image:
Newark...NJ  27-DEC-47

Winter '09 / '10 - Interim Standings - 2

After six contest-worthy snow storms...the second interim standings have been posted here.

Under the 'Two-thirds' Rule...forecasters who/ve made at least four forecasts were included in the Interim Standings.

Image:  U.S. Capitol...8-Jan-39

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #6 - Final Results

NEWxSFC Senior forecaster ilibov has won this season/s 6th snowfall forecast contest.

SUMSQ error: 126.6"
Z-score: -0.746

Improvement over the average error: 53% (268")

Perfect forecast @ISP and SBY

Lowest station errors @CAR...PWM...ISP...ACY...and SBY

Congratulations ilibov!

2nd Place: herb @ maws (151.9"; -0.612)
3rd Place: donsutherland1 (153.5"; -0.604)
Honorable Mention: Donald Rosenfeld (189.5"; -0.413)

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the Contest web site.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #6 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday through Wednesday from CDUS41 and METARs.

No new daily records.

Please report errors and a link to the correct data in Comments.
Final results and storm summary Friday evening.

Winter '09 / '10 - Interim Standings

After five contest-worthy snow storms...the first interim standings have been posted here.

Under the 'Two-thirds' Rule...forecasters who/ve made at least four forecasts were included in the Interim Standings.

Ordinarily...the first interim standings would have been posted after three storms...but the storms just kept a'comin.'

Image:  Boston...1910.

Winter '09 / '10 - Snow Storm #6 - The Forecasts

Forecaster Summary
Forecasts in the table below are ranked by storm total precipitation (STP) in ascending order. Blue (red) STP values are below (above) the 25th (75th) percentile of all forecast STPs.

Average STP (93.8") per average number of stations (25) forecast: 3.8".



Nine entries...including two Rookies... one Intern...and six Senior forecasters...issued 229 station forecasts for the winter/s 6th contest snow storm.

Everyone's station forecasts have been posted on the Contest's web site.

Consensus for a modest SNE event.



Arctic Oscillation (AO) stuck well below zero. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remains more than one standard deviation below its mean in response to hi-latitude omega block in the vicinity of Iceland. Pacific-North American (PNA) about one standard deviation indicating amplified westerlies across NOAM.

Disorganized area of surface LOW over OH Valley and the mid-Atlantic.  Storm b/comes better organized with height where closed circulations begin near 700 mb and continue throughout the remainder of troposphere.

Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST...WED 17-FEB-10.
Preliminary storm-total snowfall amounts will be posted the evening of THU 18-FEB-10.