Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month Three

CAR alone enjoyed a 'normal' snowfall this winter.  No other station came even close to normal.

March is the last month for the 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest.  Latest round of long range progs hold little hope for a late rally.

Climo columns are the summed monthly totals for DEC...JAN...and FEB.

Teleconnections for FEB (top) and meteorological winter (bottom).

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results

Springfield MA

1st Place - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 76.05
SUMSQ Z: -1.079
STP: 6.35 (4)
TAE: 20.75 (1)
AAE: 1.60 (1)

2nd Place - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ: 109.66
SUMSQ Z: -0.651
STP: 18.90 (9)
TAE: 26.50 (2)
AAE: 2.04 (5)

3rd Place - TQ
SUMSQ: 117.34
SUMSQ Z: -0.553
STP: 8.05 (6)
TAE: 30.95 (4)
AAE: 2.06 (6)

Honorable mention - ilibov
SUMSQ: 125.21
SUMSQ Z: -0.453
STP: 9.20 (7)
TAE: 33.00 (7)
AAE: 1.74 (2)
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

Verified forecasts and storm summary at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of 4 PM Friday.

Based on PNSBOX and NOHRSC...no evidence for any accumulation at HYA.  ORH value came from PNSBOX b/c no report was available from climate bulletins.   ORH STP may be revised if new data become available.

Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their liquid totals included mixed precipitation.

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Four new daily records.
WED...29-FEB-12
BDL - 4.4" (4.4"; 2008)
ALB - 4" (0.8"; 2008)
ORH - 4" (3.1"; 1968)

THU...01-MAR-12
PWM - 13" (9.3"; 2005)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Saturday evening.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - The Forecasts

Posted at the Contest/s web page here.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Raw Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Call for Forecasts - Take Two

26-FEB-1969
Boston

Appears to be a sloppy Miller 'B' storm poised to rake much of New England come Wednesday followed by the remnants of the parent LOW on Thursday.  Moderate strength HIGH to the north expected to keep columns cold enough to support a contest-worthy storm.

Might as well fuggetabout the classic nor'easter this season.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST TUE...28-FEB-12

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM WED...29-FEB-12
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM THU...01-MAR-12

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '11 / '12 - VCP32 - Liking Myself the Way I Am

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Fizzle

Update:

ORH measured 0.5"

No report from ORH at post-time.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Call for Forecasts

UPDATE: 
'Call for Forecasts' CANCELLED.
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Looks to be more than enough snow potential along the northern edge of the precipitation shield to warrant a contest...especially this winter when contest-worthy storms have be MIA.

JFK Airport
10-FEB-69

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST FRI...10-FEB-12

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SAT...11-FEB-12
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM SAT...11-FEB-12

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.

Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month Two

NWS finally got around to issuing their month-end climo bulletins for NEWxSFC forecast stations.

Here's the state of this sad...sad winter.
Northern New England stations barely holding their own.  Most in the top third are half to just under two-thirds their climo total for December and Janaury.

Short of Superstorm '93 seqel...all of the middle Atlantic is down for the count.
Normal season-totals aren't very high to begin with...so all it would take is one good...slow moving coastal to make up current deficits.

Climo columns are the summed monthly totals for DEC and JAN.

Favorite teleconnections finally heading in the right direction over the last 10 days of the month.