Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Lowest Station Errors

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Season-total Snowfall

GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Only one station (RDU) did not observe at least 100% of their period-of-record normal (PORN) snowfall.

Winter '13 / '14 was a Mid-Atlantic season hands-down.

Lollypop for the 68" at PHL (323% above PORN).

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Preliminary Verification

UPDATE 2:
Delayed issuance of SBY climate bulletins carried 5" STP coinciding with local media report in PNSAKQ.  CLI STP at odds with METAR data; however...it is what it is.

UPDATE @ 3:42 PM 
Re-analysis of SBY 6-group and P-group data indicates 0.39" liquid and 3.9" STP at 10:1 SN:H2O.

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Original post @ 10:01 AM
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51.

Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s 1.8" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O.

Six new daily records
SUN...16-MAR-14
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)

MON...17-MAR-14
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: FINAL Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #7 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 6
TOT 8

101 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus across DC-BATLO metro area extending onto the Delmarva with the lollypop expected at IAD.  Another consensus about whether this was a contest-worthy event!

<still speechless>

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 0.25" STP estimated from vicinity reports and KHYA METARs.

Two new daily records
WED:
BTV - 15.2" (7.2"; 1959)

THU:
CAR - 9.4" (8.7"; 1953)

Many SLRs contaminated by mixed precipitation.

00z 13-MAR-14

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Sunday evening.