Winter '14 / '15 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of sources.

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Accu-Wx
"After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season."

NOAA
"Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year"

Climate Prediction Center
(Experimental Unofficial Two-class Monthly & Seasonal Climate Outlooks)

Winter '13 / '14 - 'Regular Season' Contest: FINAL Results

NYC
27-DEC-47

Turned out to be a fairly decent season with eight contest-worthy storms.
(DEC - 1; JAN - 2; FEB - 2; MAR - 3)

Top Forecasters ('two-thirds' rule)
1st - donsutherland
2nd - Brad Yehl
3rd - Herb @MAWS
Honorable Mention: TQ

Top Forecasters (entered all eight Contests)
1st - donsutherland
2nd - Herb @MAWS
3rd - TQ
Honorable Mention: Brad Yehl

More 'slice and dice' results at the Contest/s web site here.

Everyone's storm summary data here.

See y'all next winter!

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Full forecast verification at the Contest/s web site here.
See y'all next year!

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecaster STP

Table ranks Forecasters by their expected cumulative season-total snowfall (STP) compared to the cumulative observed season-total snowfall only.  It does not indicate how well the forecast verified.

Observed:  1412.7"

Period-or-Record normal (PORN):  934"

The cumulative season-total snowfall was 479" (51%) above normal.

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Lowest Station Errors

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Season-total Snowfall

GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Only one station (RDU) did not observe at least 100% of their period-of-record normal (PORN) snowfall.

Winter '13 / '14 was a Mid-Atlantic season hands-down.

Lollypop for the 68" at PHL (323% above PORN).

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Preliminary Verification

UPDATE 2:
Delayed issuance of SBY climate bulletins carried 5" STP coinciding with local media report in PNSAKQ.  CLI STP at odds with METAR data; however...it is what it is.

UPDATE @ 3:42 PM 
Re-analysis of SBY 6-group and P-group data indicates 0.39" liquid and 3.9" STP at 10:1 SN:H2O.

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Original post @ 10:01 AM
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51.

Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s 1.8" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O.

Six new daily records
SUN...16-MAR-14
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)

MON...17-MAR-14
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.