Update - 7th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

The Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest for Winter '07 / '08 closes @ 11:59 PM EDT MON 31 MAR 2008. Final results will be available shortly thereafter.

Snow continues piling on @ the extreme northern stations. A few more inches are possible right up to the end.

Contest # 9 - Take 3

The 12z GooFuS was dangling bright...shiny...six-sided objects again today...this time though...it might not be a mere mirage on the 240-hour or 144-hour prog where all the best storms have been of late.

The latest 'new-n-improved' version of the Eta / NAM / WRF / WTF was not as generous...so maybe FRI/s event will disappear into the ether as well.

Should the latest progged promise of a late season contest storm continue over the next few model runs...a call for forecasts will come WED evening with an entry deadline about 24 hours later.

Interim Standings

Eight (8) Contests to date. Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least six (6) forecasts are included in this interim summary.

Donsutherland1 holds 1st place with a best '6-out-of-8' average SUMSQ Error Z-score of -1.165. (delta: +0.005)



2nd Place: Raven (-0.685; delta: -0.131)
3rd Place: TQ (-0.679; delta: 0.154)



Complete data table @ the Contest web site.

SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate interim and final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Click images to enlarge.

Contest # 9 - Take 2

Much better chance for a contest-worthy storm beginning late FRI and continuing all day SAT.

Trend all season has been for the medium-range progs to shift the storm center NW with time...apparently affected by weak LOW pressure systems moving through the Great Lakes. No suggestion...so far...of that scenario repeating itself this go'round.

Early indications depict a Miller-A nor'easter hugging the coast. A minor shift to the east would likely bury the I-95 corridor.

Click image to animate.

Contest # 8 - Results

Raven...last year/s Season-total Contest winner...made the best forecast for this event with a SUMSQ Error of 24.5" (Z-Score = -1.343).

He hit the trifecta with 1st places finishes for Total Absolute Error (17.05") and Average Absolute Error (0.85"). His 91.4% R-SQ score was highest of all entries.

Raven/s station forecasts had the lowest absolute error @ CAR...PWM...CON...BDR...ABE... MDT...EWR and were perfect @ BDR...ABE...MDT...and EWR.

Congratulations...Raven!

2nd Place: Donsutherland1 (32.8"; -1.141)
3rd Place: Herb@MAWS (50.3"; -0.714)

Herb@MAWS placed 1st for sum-total storm precipitation with his forecast of 59.7" (58.35" observed).

Full forecast verification and contest summary @ the web site.

Contest # 9 - Cancelled

Today/s 12z progs indicate the storm will not be contest-worthy.

Contest # 9 - Call for Forecasts

Hot on the heels of Snow Storm #8 is another event targeted for stations across northern New England. Some of the stations likely affected have already exceeded their D-J-F CLIMO by at least 40%.

Deadline: 10:30 PM EST MON…3 MAR 2008
Forecast verification begins: 12:01 AM EST TUE…4 MAR 2008

Enter your forecast via the Contest/s web site
Follow the link to 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

Please enter 0.05 for trace amounts instead of a 'T.'

The Contest Administrator will post all forecasts to the NE_Wx Google Group within 30 minutes after the deadline and to the Contest web site the following day.

Contest subject to cancellation before the deadline…if forecast conditions warrant.

More information about the contest/s rules…forecast verification…and scoring can be found at the main web site.

Updates and announcement are posted on the Contest/s web log

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Forecasters need to register once before entering…even if they were registered last year.

Registration is simple… requiring only a username and password. If you provide a valid e-mail address…a copy of your forecast will be sent to you. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

Each contest must have a minimum of seven (7) forecasters for the results to be included in the end-of-season standings.

The NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is a multi-month event that continues into late March or early April. In general…contests are held whenever a decent…synoptic-scale storm rears its head and threatens at least a half-dozen forecast stations with more than nuisance snowfall amounts. Forecasters are called to post their 'storm total' snowfall predictions…on deadline…for 27 NWS / FAA observing stations scattered about New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions. The Contest Administrator determines the deadlines for entries…verifies all forecasts…and publishes the final results to the Contest/s web site.

Please be sure to read the rules before entering the contest b/c your entry constitutes agreement to abide by them.

You can find the Contest Rules and additional information about error scoring…current monthly snowfall climatology from NCDC…daily CPC teleconnection indices…daily NESDIS N-Hemi snow cover…and NWS Daily Climate Bulletins (CDUS41) by pointing your browser here.

Contest # 8 - Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for FRI and SAT.

Snow is still accumulating @ CAR today...so final verification numbers will not be available until Monday.

Saturday/s CDUS41 bulletins for CON and PWM did not report daily snowfall. May have to rely on data carried in PNS from GYX.

HYA value estimate based on its 6//// group report of 0.02" and 10:1 SN:H2O. Only one VCNTY observation in Barnstable County from East Sandwich (~10 sm NW of HYA) where 0.9" was reported.

New daily records (2/29)
ALB: 0.8" (0.6"; 1984)
BDL: 0.8" (0.6"; 1948)

Please report errors in Remarks.

Contest # 8 - Teleconnections

+PNA plays its part yet again. Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations well above zero and rising during the 'run-up' and 'day or event' periods...yet record cold temperatures set in New England in advance of the storm.