Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Don/t Think It/s Gonna Change
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #5
After seven snow storms...
Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #7...your top five Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here.
Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of the season...the 'equalized' scores can be averaged.
An expanded data table with higher resolution graphics and additional measures of forecaster skill at the Contest's home page.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Final Results
SUMSQ: 20.61
SUMSQ Z: -0.704
STP: 4.15 (1)
TAE: 16.85 (1)
AAE: 0.70 (1)
2nd - TQ
SUMSQ: 22.19
SUMSQ Z: -0.691
STP: 8.10 (3)
TAE: 17.30 (2)
AAE: 0.72 (2)
3rd - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ: 27.04
SUMSQ Z: -0.651
STP: 10.34 (5)
TAE: 19.34 (3)
AAE: 0.81 (3)
Honorable Mention - herb @ maws
SUMSQ: 29.81
SUMSQ Z: -0.628
STP: 12.70 (6)
TAE: 20.00 (4)
AAE: 0.83 (4)
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(rank)
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Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest/s home page.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Preliminary Verification
Storm-total snowfall for HYA and SBY were estimated from METARs.
Some stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their totals included mixed precipitation.
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One daily record.
MON...21-FEB-11
BGM - 3.5" (3.5"; 1993)
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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.
Final results and storm summary Wednesday evening.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - The Forecasts
12 forecasters
1 Rookie
2 Interns
2 Journeymen
7 Seniors including Chief Forecaster Ira Libov
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All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page.
Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall.
Please check you entry for accuracy.
Extra large range of expected storm-total snowfalls...
Min: 27" (Donald Rosenfeld)
Max: 118" (Roger Smith)
Avg: 59"
Median: 52"
STD: 23"
Consensus heavy snowfall axis from ORH - ISP - BGM - ALB - ORH.
President's Day sure ain't what it used to be.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Raw Forecasts
The raw forecasts have been posted at the ne_wx GoogleGroup.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Call for Forecasts
 |
| NY Bronx Mosholu Parkway FEB 1961 |
Please note the earlier than usual deadline of 7 PM.
Verification period includes Sunday to capture the storm's leading edge of frozen precipitation expected over NW stations late Sunday evening.
The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.
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Deadline for entries: 7 PM EST SUN...20-FEB-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...20-FEB-11
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM MON...21-FEB-11
Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #4
After six snow storms...
Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #6...your top four Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here.
Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of the season...the 'equalized' scores can be averaged.
An expanded data table with higher resolution graphics and additional measures of forecaster skill at the Contest's home page.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - Final Results
SUMSQ: 52.23
SUMSQ Z: -0.632
STP: 8.50 (1)
TAE: 18.60 (1)
AAE: 1.03 (1)
2nd - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ: 52.39
SUMSQ Z: -0.632
STP: 12.34 (2)
TAE: 22.34 (2)
AAE: 1.31 (2)
3rd - ejbauers
SUMSQ: 111.80
SUMSQ Z: -0.582
STP: 13.80 (3)
TAE: 26.80 (3)
AAE: 1.49 (3)
Honorable Mention - snowman
SUMSQ: 126.42
SUMSQ Z: -0.570
STP: 16.70 (4)
TAE: 33.30 (4)
AAE: 1.85 (4)
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(rank)
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Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest/s home page.
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - Preliminary Verification
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of 9 AM Thursday.
CON/s Daily Climate Bulletin did not carry a snowfall report. Verifying storm-total snowfall was estimated at 10". It was derived from 0.71" liquid precipitation data element carried in CON/s CLIMATE REPORT (CLICON) based on SN:H20 of 14:1
Many stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their totals included mixed precipitation.
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Two new daily records.
Wednesday...02-FEB-11
BTV - 11.3" (6.5"; 1976)
BGR - 10.7" (7"; 2003)
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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.
Final results and storm summary Saturday evening.
UPDATE
The CF6 bulletin (PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) carried 5.7" for CON/s daily snowfall on 02-FEB. Hard to believe the daily snowfall total was less than 10:1 given the METARs showed temperatures in the teens and no mixed precipitation was observed.
The CF6 value from ASOS will be used for verification.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - The Forecasts
10 forecasters
1 Rookie
2 Interns
1 Journeyman
6 Seniors
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All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page.
Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall.
Please check you entry for accuracy.
Larger than usual range of expected storm-total snowfall...
Min: 64" (Donald Rosenfeld)
Max: 320" (MarkHofmann)
Avg: 125"
Median: 100"
STD: 76"
Consensus heavy snowfall axis from ALB - BTV - BGR - PWM - ORH - ALB.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
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