Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: Call for Forecasts

Reading...PA
JAN-48

Apparent stream-phasing in store for Storm #2.
A dicey scenario fraught with danger for forecasters if the atmosphere fails to follow the script.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST WED...01-JAN-14
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST THU...02-JAN-14
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '13 / '14 - Coastal Teaser #2

A Miller 'A' contest-worthy event possible later in the week.

If all falls into place, a 'Call for Forecasts' will be made TUE evening...31-DEC-13.
Deadline for entries would be 10:30 PM EST WED...01-JAN-14.
Verification would begin 12:01 AM EST THU...02-JAN-14.

Winter '13 / '14 - White Christmas

Area Covered By Snow: 41.7%

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: Final Results

Times Square
13-DEC-33

1st - Herb@MAWS
SUMSQ:	67.10
SUMSQ Z:	-0.980
STP:	8.70	(6)
TAE:	30.10	(3)
AAE:	1.31	(3)
2nd - TQ
SUMSQ:	90.43
SUMSQ Z:	-0.873
STP:	7.75	(5)
TAE:	31.95	(4)
AAE:	1.52	(4)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	109.74
SUMSQ Z:	-0.783
STP:	12.60	(8)
TAE:	29.40	(2)
AAE:	1.23	(1)
HM - kevinmyatt
SUMSQ:	112.63
SUMSQ Z:	-0.770
STP:	17.75	(11)
TAE:	36.35	(6)
AAE:	1.73	(6)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #1 here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Saturday and Sunday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins. BGR appears low given reports of 10" in the immediate vicinity.

Three new daily records.

SAT...15-DEC-13
EWR - 4.3" (4.2"; 1951)
ISP - 4.1" (1.2"; 1988)

SUN...16-DEC-13
PWM - 10.6" (10.3"; 2003)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results available TUE evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: The Forecasts!

18 forecasters for this winter/s inaugural event.
Interns:  5
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  12

Forecasts are ranked by storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.

RED ==> 75th percentile.

STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

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Consensus for heaviest snows over the northern tier of forecast stations.

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Once again, teleconnections at odds with everything we think we know about them and decent snows in the NE US.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

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Promotions

New Interns (second year forecasting)

JDG63

kevinmyatt

Quagmireweathercentral

snowcat918

Wxoutlooks

New Journeymen (third year forecasting)

Brad Yehl

New Seniors (fourth year forecasting)

bruced39

MarkHoffman

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Special thanks to Senior forecaster Donald Rosenfeld for his continued support of the NEWxSFC contest.  Donald has hosted the Contest web site for many years and is responsible for its on-line forecast entry capabilities.

Winter '13 / '14 - Major Snowstorm Paralyzes Cairo and Jerusalem

First Time In 112 Years.

More...

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: Call for Forecasts

NYC
12-13-1960

Secondary LOW expected to develop off the Jersey coast on late Saturday evening and hurl moisture-rich Atlantic air into an arctic air mass parked over the Canadian maritime Provinces.

Nor'easter expected to track across the famed 40/70 benchmark early Sunday and deliver contest-worthy snows over much of the forecast area.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST FRI...13-DEC-13
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST SAT...14-DEC-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.  Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - Coastal Teaser #1

Winter is off to a flying start featuring a pair of compact snowstorms over the forecast area during the past week.

The season's inaugural contest may get underway this weekend!

Low latitude storm progged to advance toward the east coast on Friday with secondary development off the Jersey coast late Saturday.

Today/s outlook from the Weather Prediction Center giving low odds on a contest-worthy event; however...it/s worth keeping an eye on.

Call for Forecast possible Thursday evening.

Deadline for entries would be 10:30 PM EST Friday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecast Summary

Twenty-one forecasters this year including more than a few new faces.
Welcome Rookies and welcome back to NEWxSFC/s veteran forecasters.
Good to see everyone for the 13th Annual NE.Wx 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest.

As always, a wide range of forecasts with four forecasters (19%) going under the NCDC period-of-record normal (PORN) season-total snowfall (934").

Total number of forecasts:  525
Over:  342
Under:  181
PORN:  2

Forecasts in the table below are ranked in ascending order by sum-total snowfall for all stations.

Blue cells:  <= 25th percentile
Red cells:  >= 75th percentile
Yellow cell:  Top Forecaster - Winter '12 / '13
PORN is the Period of Record Normal.

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Majority opinions for below-normal snows at ORH...BDL...BGM...ORF...and RDU.
Strong consensus (>80%) for above-normal snows at BGR...PWM...CON...BDR...ABE...and DCA.

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Prizes for 1st place have returned this winter for the 'Season-total' and 'Regular' contests.
The winner of each Contest gets delivered post-paid right to their front door one of the following:

"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback and .pdf)
"New England Weather New England Climate" by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim (hardcover)
"Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)

Everyone's complete forecast is available on the Contest/s web site.