Coastal Teaser #2

For Your Consideration - 00z 12/15


Other than noting bagginess in mid-lvl geo-height fields...offered without comment.

MEI - October / November '06

Latest Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) comes in @ 1.293...up 26% from 1.027 during Sept / Oct.

Klaus Wolter of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory - Physical Science Division notes this is the 5th highest of all Oct / Nov values and the highest ranked value since Apr / May '98.

Wolter expects +ENSO to remain moderate (near +1)...if not stronger (near +1.5 or higher) into early '07. His analog years are 1951-2, 1963-4, 1976-7, and 2002-3. Not sure why '86 / 87 wasn/t included since it lines up so well with the the '06 YTD observations on a regression line.

'57 is ranked 7th as an MEI analog. The '57 QBO is ranked 5th and is the only top-ranked QBO year during +ENSO. Even the '57 PDO is close...although the current index leads the historical by three months...there are intriguing similarities.


MEI - '06 (observed) and '57 (analog) YTD (Dec/Jan - Oct/Nov)

'57 snows were quite good in NE and especially so across the M-A.


Too bad analog forecasting produces such poor results.

NAO - MET Office Winter Forecast '06 / '07

The UKMET Office issued their Winter Forecast yesterday.

Temperature across Europe - slightly above climo with occasional cold outbreaks. In the UK, December is expected to be mild with colder temperatures during mid and late winter.

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Precipitation across Europe - equal chances for above or below normal. In the UK, they expect normal to slightly above normal.

Sounds like they/re expecting a +NAO to dominant this winter...which is au contraire to many US forecasters who 'see' the opposite as the most likely outcome.

The Brits have been torturing the NAO index in recent years in a dogged attempt to make it confess to what it knows about the coming winter. The MET Office claims their winter NAO forecasts...which are based on May/s SST anomalies in the NW Atlantic near Newfoundland... have a 66% accuracy regarding it/s sign.



May SST Pattern - Winter Z500 Pattern


May 2006 SST Anoms

Nothing negative about the correlated 5H pattern this season.

NAO - November '06

GACK!

Near-normal NAO but still...0.440 is disappointing to those eager for a quick transition to winter weather. Not that November/s number comes as any surprise seeing how mean monthly temperatures in the NE and M-A were well above normal.

RIC +4.7
IAD +3.4
PHL +4.4
BGM +5.4
BDL +5.0
BTV +5.7
BOS +4.2
PWM +5.5
CAR +6.1

With the addition of November/s datum...top three NAO analog years for this winter ('52...'81...'02) hold fast. '94 moves up one click to 4th, '80 sinks to 6th, and '01 moves into 5th. '02...which had very good snows for most stations in NE and the M-A except ORF and RDU....also shows up in the top five SOI analog years.

CW has it this season would be cold and stormy in the E...strongly influenced by +ENSO and -NAO. So...what/s up with the LR progs continuing their depiction of high index flow across the CONUS with a strong...fast PAC jet well into Week2.

No need to panic...yet. Only five days into MET winter and there/s a whole lotta winter to go.

SOI - November '06

This just in to the NEWxSFC newsroom...November/s SOI is -1.4. Still negative but not as strong as last month/s -15.3. In any event, el Ninner is still in play.

'63...'01...'57...and '02 were the hot picks for analog years last month and there/s no change after incorporating November/s index. It comes as no surprise some of these SOI analog years ('63 and '02) are also the top picks based on the MEI.

Interesting to note...'57 shows up in the top five years for QBO...as well and the winter of '57 was a very good snowfall season across the NE and M-A.

Going back in time to the SOI/s 'Big Bang' in '76 as in 1876...the SOI YTD fits best with '11 and '25...but it/s difficult finding other tele-connected indices and snowfall data back that far such that the 'eligible' analog years begin in 1950 b/c that/s when most of the other index data begin.

SOI - '06 YTD
12.7
0.1
13.8
15.2
-9.8
-5.5
-8.9
-15.9
-5.1
-15.3
-1.4

QBO - November '06

Latest QBO comes in @ 10.10...hot on the heels of October/s 10.86. Top three analog years since 1948 are still 1990...1971...and 1969 based on regression and R² analysis for QBO values YTD. '90 had a neutral ENSO...'71 was cold...but '69 was warm as is '06.
1969/1970 snowfall @ RIC was 14" and near the period-of-record normal. 1957 was a good match using regresson...but the R² value didn/t make the top 10.

The winter of '69 snows were generous to interior NE stations such as BTV...ALB...BGM...BDL...and MDT but near-normal to occasionally below-normal elsewhere.

"The QBO determines the character of the early winter, leading to a colder and more stable polar vortex in December and January during the west phase of the QBO and a more disturbed and warmer Arctic during the east phase of the QBO.

The solar cycle influences the latter part of the winters when a clear difference is observed between periods of high and low solar activity. During high solar activity the winters in the west phase of the QBO tend to be disturbed and are often connected with Major Midwinter (stratospheric) Warmings." - anon

Solar activity has been anything but high for a long time...so don/t look for any dramatic height falls over the Arctic.

QBO since January '06...
-18.83
-11.24
-0.38
5.00
10.36
11.47
10.75
9.10
10.20
10.86
10.10

Keep Your Snowpants On...It/s Coming.

When can the first Contest storm be expected?

Since its inception back in 2000...the NEWxSFC has always had at least one Contest storm before the end of December. The earliest storm happened on 11/27/02. The latest storm was 12/30/00.

The best guess for when this year/s first Contest storm will occur is the latter half of December/s second week (12/9 - 12/14).

Based upon an admittedly small data set...in any given year there/s a 50% chance the first storm will be on or before Dec. 9...a 67% chance it will happen on or before December 14...and an 83% chance the storm will occur on or before Dec. 20.

Dates of First Contest Storm
00 / 01 - Dec. 30
01 / 02 - Dec. 9
02 / 03 - Nov. 27
03 / 04 - Dec. 14
04 / 05 - Dec. 20
05 / 06 - Dec. 5

Keep Your Snowpants On...It/s Coming.

Coastal Teaser #1 - LOW and Away

The one encouraging thing to come out of tomorrow/s near-miss coastal storm is the L/W pattern continues to cough up nor'easters. This pattern has been on-going for months and is common in +ENSO years so it/s only a matter of time before cold air and moisture coverge into a good contest storm.

DISCUSSION: Eta brings a brief three to five hour period light snow to the SNE coast soon after sunrise Monday before ending during the early afternoon. GooFuS 2M temperture prog keeps 32° isotherm well inland (implying an all liquid event), but that could be a consequence of the model/s inability to correctly resolve shallow cold air masses. Makes me nostalgic for the LFM!

The primary snowfall-limiting conditions are 1) the warm boundary layer at most stations, 2) the best dynamic forcing is offshore, and 3) an upstream kicker in a progressive UA flow regime. Snowfall amounts expected to be in the nuisance category, so there/ll be no Contest for this event.

The 20:01 UTC enhanced IR image from GOES-8 shows the cooling cloud top temperatures INVOF the nascient LOW developing S of HSE.

Season-total Snowfall Contest - The Forecasts

Click image for larger view.

25 forecasters: 15 returning and 10 new. Welcome to all the new forecasters and welcome back to all the veterans.

Donald Rosenfeld returns this year to defend his '05/'06 title. Last year, he bested a field of 22 challengers and was the only forecaster to beat the Period of Record Normal (PORN).

All forecasts have been posted to the website. Follow the link to Season-total Contest Forecasts. Blue (red) cells are the lower (upper) third of all forecasts. Forecasters are ranked from lowest season-total snowfall to highest.

Average season-total forecast is 1047” which is 13% above the 928“ PORN. Median forecast is 1070”.

Minimum forecast is 516”; 56% PORN (Raven2001)
Maximum forecast is 1,445”; 156% PORN (Wxcaster)

Five forecasters are below PORN; two are expecting less than 75% PORN
Twenty forecasters are over PORN; eight are expecting at least 25% more PORN.

Consensus station winners, by percent over PORN:
SBY 129%
BDR 125%
DCA 123%

Consensus station losers, by percent over PORN:
RDU 95%
IAD 97%
RIC 101%

Please check your entry to ensure its accuracy and report errors to the Contest Administrator mailto:newx(@)newx-forecasts.com

Season-total Forecasts

The forecasts have been posted on the website. Follow the link to 'Season Forecasts.'

Good turnout this year with 25 entries; 10 from new forecasters. Donald Rosenfeld returns to defend his title.

An analysis and summary will be posted later.