State of the Cryosphere

Kevin Myatt of the Roanoke (VA) Times has an interesting on-line article about the state of the NHEMI cryosphere in today/s Weather Journal.

The Arctic Ocean is largely unfrozen as of mid-October and its ice pack is a shadow of itself from one year ago. Kevin describes how cold air masses will be slow to develop as much of the cooling will go into replenishing the ice sheet.

The Cryosphere Today from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois is a good resource for more information.

Early Snowfalls

(Updated below - Update II)

Reports abound from around the globe of earlier than usual snowfall. Saw a story from Japan as well but lost the link.

Pocatello (Idaho) recorded its third-earliest seasonal snowfall Saturday

Snow Falls Early in South Iceland

Early snow surprises hikers, shuts down Yosemite pass

Sierra Nevada [dusted] with an usually early snowfall

[E]xpedition organizers had not anticipated the early snowfall and blizzards.

Not at all clear what it means or if it/s unusual. For all we know...snow falls earlier than usual somewhere every year.

Update
Early Snow @ Fort Collins,CO.

Update II
Hokkaido's Wakkanai city observes 1st snow in Japan

CPC/s Winter '07 / '08 Outlook - September

Seems a little odd for CPC to issue a 90-day outlook for meteorological winter (DJF) in early October based on mid-September data (2.5 month lead-time).

In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic...
"Temperatures are expected to be above average in response to the long-term warming trend.

Snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors... which are difficult to anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance."



CPC/s winter outlook will be updated on Oct. 18 and again on Nov. 15.

QBO - September '07

QBO is six months into its negative phase where the index is currently well below its long-term average. First time in a while QBO will be east throughout the winter. Flip coming in the spring this time around.

Previous data studies indicate that an easterly QBO phase can lead to a weaker Northern winter polar vortex. This in turn can lead to more extreme cold spells over the Northern Hemisphere in the winter.

The quasi-biennial oscillation dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. Although the QBO is a tropical phenomenon...it affects the stratospheric flow from pole to pole by modulating the effects of extra-tropical waves.

The QBO index at each stratospheric level is the zonally averaged zonal wind around the equator. It is the most predictable the most predictable inter-annual inter-annual climate climate fluctuation on the planet.

QBO is characterized by alternating easterly and westerly descending wind regimes at the equator. The period of the oscillation varies from 20 to 36 months...with an average period of about 28 months...over the past half century.

The QBO determines the character of the early winter...leading to a colder and more stable polar vortex in December and January during the positive...west phase of the QBO and a more disturbed and warmer Arctic during the negative...east phase of the QBO.

Major winter stratospheric warmings preferentially occur during the easterly phase of the QBO, Holton and Tan (1980).

The solar cycle influences the latter part of the winters when a clear difference is observed between periods of high and low solar activity. During high solar activity the winters in the west (+) phase of the QBO tend to be disturbed and are often connected with Major Midwinter Warmings.

MET Office - NAO Prediction

From the UK Met Office...
"The figure below shows that the predicted winter NAO index for 2007/8 is weakly negative at -0.05 with a standard error of ±1.0. The near zero amplitude of the predicted index relative to the error bar means that the NAO prediction provides little signal for below- or above-normal European winter temperatures or precipitation. However, the prediction is consistent with a cooler, drier winter over northern Europe as a whole than experienced in winter 2006/7, when the observed index was +1.1."


The model does an OK job forecasting inter-annual variations...but not so much for an upcoming season. Its correlation coefficient (R) is an anemic 0.45. Enough to demonstrate some skill but not high enough to hint at which way it/s heading next.

Here/s the model/s loading pattern. The anomaly tri-pole along NOAM/S EC and the Saragossa Sea dipole are associated with anomalies @ 500 mb and a positive NAO.


Here/s the model/s SSTAs for this year. A strong signal NAO won/t be strong positive.


Forecasts for the previous two years/s have been good for sign and magnitude...however...past performance does not guarantee future rate of return. The error bars suggest 1) NAO won/t be stronger than last year and 2) the index has a 50/50 chance of going either way relative to zero.

Snow International

Global snow reporting from snow-forecast.com Updated weekly.

From their latest post...

North America
==========
"Over the past few days, our snow alert system has been busy sending
warnings of new snow for the Canadian Rockies - the first time this
season. With a strong La Nina, we would expect a steady stream of
Pacific storms pouring into the Pacific NW. This is just what the
forecast for the next 7 days shows with Whistler bearing the full
brunt on Saturday night and then again on Tuesday and yet again on
Friday. Too mild for snow at resort level this close to the coast and
this early in the season, but above mid-station we expect to see the
accumulation of another 50cm of fresh snow by Wednesday. As these
weather systems push deep into the continent on a NE track, many
resorts in the Pacific NW and the northern Rockies will enjoy
excellent early season snowfalls."

More...

Beware the Three-headed Dog

"...[T]hree major phenomena, which he likened to a "three-headed dog", influenced Australia's rainfall: El Nino events, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode, a weather pattern in the Southern Ocean..."

woof!

October's ENSO Anomaly Forecast - Winter '07 - '08

Latest CFS forecast for ENSO Region 3.4 SST anomaly of ~-1.6°C continues trend from previous model runs for La Nina conditions to be well established this winter. Each run has been stronger than the last. The current forecast for a 'strong' La Nina reflects a 1°C difference from last summer/s 'weak' forecast.


Previous DJF forecast values (°C)
April -0.6
May -0.6
June -0.8
July -0.9
August -1.1

Latest monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies reflect the model/s La Nina forecast for warm and dry in the SE.

7th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

NE.Wx/s annual ‘Season-Total Snowfall Forecasting Contest’ is your absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that...but if you win the Contest...you get a copy of "The Snow Booklet"...by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson.

What other incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest?

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; all weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers and other commonly recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras...registered Nostradamists...non-violent megalomaniacs...woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx NG regulars and lurkers; refugees from EUSWx or StormVista...and of course... meteorologists.

Trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Raven2001.

Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall
Forecast period: December 1, 2007 through March 31, 2008
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)

Deadline: Friday, November 30, 2007 @ 11:59 PM EST

Station list at the website.

WSI Energycast - OND

In the NE...
October - Colder than normal
November - Warmer than normal
December - Colder than normal

"According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “The La Nina event continues to slowly strengthen and play a dominant role in temperature patterns, primarily via modulation of tropical convection patterns and their subsequent downstream impacts in the US. Typically, in the eastern US, La Nina means a warm October and a cold December, with the transition occurring in November. While we feel that December will indeed be cold in the East, the current ocean temperature patterns in the northern Pacific suggest that the early fall warmth may not be as certain as the La Nina signal suggests.” "

More...