Eurasia Snow Cover - OCT '08

The sCAST forecast model from AER looks to October/s snow cover over Eurasia...Siberia in particular...as a leading indicator for winter temperature departures in the CONUS.

OCT/s global snow cover climo from Rutgers U. 'Global Snow Lab' is shown on the left. What does OCT-08/s snowcover suggest about the coming winter?

Good question.

Even though mid-NOV is coming 'round the mountain...it/s apparently too early to tell b/c GSL has yet to post OCT/s numbers / analysis.

We can; however...look @ the bellwether month/s starting point...which includes Week 1.

September/s climo (L) and observed (R).
Click images to enlarge A lot of ground to make up. Notice how little snow had accumulated over the Himalyan/s and more importantly...Siberia.

Other NEWxSFC posts about sCAST here.

Snow Beer

...according to a Reuters report...is now the world/s second-largest brand.

Brewed by SABMiller...Snow beer...made with Saaz hops from the Czech Republic...
just surpassed Budweiser but still trails Bud Light. :scratch head smiley:

Apparently...there/s a pineapple version...too.

China is the biggest beer market in the world followed by the USA...Russia... Brazil...and Germany.

Might Snow beer be a good prize for a good forecast?

QBO - November '08

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is eight (8) months into its west (+) phase where the index is currently more than one (1) standard deviation about its long-term average. Last winter QBO was strongly east (-) through JAN...weakened significantly in FEB before flipping to west in MAR. The flip to east coming in MAR this time around.

Top five (5) analog years using 'least-squares' regression are 1990...1969...1971...2006...1980. None of these years appear in other analog analyses for NHEMI NOAM snow cover...PDO...AO...NAO...or MEI; although...1990 2006 is the 5th 2nd best analog for NOAM NHEMI snow cover and 1971 is 5th best analog for SOI.



Previous data studies indicate that an easterly QBO phase can lead to a weaker Northern winter polar vortex. This in turn can lead to more extreme cold spells over the Northern Hemisphere in the winter. A flip to east in MAR adds to the probability of a cold end to winter...but the cold would be contained at high latitude until then.

The quasi-biennial oscillation dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. Although the QBO is a tropical phenomenon...it affects the stratospheric flow from pole to pole by modulating the effects of extra-tropical waves.

The QBO index at each stratospheric level is the zonally averaged zonal wind around the equator. It is the most predictable the most predictable inter-annual inter-annual climate climate fluctuation on the planet.

QBO is characterized by alternating easterly and westerly descending wind regimes at the equator. The period of the oscillation varies from 20 to 36 months...with an average period of about 28 months...over the past half century.

The QBO determines the character of the early winter...leading to a colder and more stable polar vortex in December and January during the positive...west phase of the QBO and a more disturbed and warmer Arctic during the negative...east phase of the QBO.

Major winter stratospheric warmings preferentially occur during the easterly phase of the QBO, Holton and Tan (1980).

The solar cycle influences the latter part of the winters when a clear difference is observed between periods of high and low solar activity. During high solar activity the winters in the west (+) phase of the QBO tend to be disturbed and are often connected with Major Midwinter Warmings.

The Fog Days of August

"For every fog in August...
There will be a snowfall in Winter."

As folklore would have it...the number of foggy days in August correlates to the number of snow storms during the upcoming winter.

Now...there/s fog and then there/s fog. Only days where visibility was reduced to 0.25 SM or less were included in the table.

By the looks of it...SBY gets the best of it this go 'round...while there/s a whole lot of bupkis for much of the remaining Mid-Atlantic region.

The meteorology behind the lore suggests an August with a fair number of cold frontal passages that generate wet and cool conditions in their wake. Length-of-day gets shorter this month...allowing more time for nocturnal radiational cooling and the development of dense fog.

CPC/s ENSO Snow Impact for CONUS

"Mean seasonal snowfall (November - March 1948 through 2006) in inches for Neutral years (top). Lower left map is the difference in snowfall between El Niño years and Neutral years. Lower right map is the difference in snowfall between La Niña years and Neutral years." (Climate Prediction Center)

CW going with distaff-leaning 'la Nada' ENSO this winter...so the top map...'Neutral Year Mean'...would be the expected snowfall distribution entering the upcoming winter. Looks favorable for an active contest season.

CPC/s ENSO Impact page also depicts temperature and precipitation anomalies.

DTX Winter Outlook - '08 / '09

WFO DTX issued its winter outlook this week. Its focus is the upper mid-west in general and Michigan in particular; however...it does have large-scale information of interest covering the NE CONUS.

8th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

(Updated below)

NE.Wx/s annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is your absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that...but if you win the Contest...you get a copy of "The Snow Booklet"...by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson or "New England Weather New England Climate"...by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim

What other incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest ?

The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Duke kc2dux
Last year/s results here.

Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall
Forecast period: December 1, 2008 through March 31, 2009
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic: absolute error

Deadline: Sunday...30 November...2008 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the website to enter your forecast. Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

As always...there/re no costs...fees...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

Trolls, goats, hat3-lsiters, and psests need not apply.

Update:
Deadline for entries has passed. Forecasts have been posted on the web site.

Dozens of New Snowfall Records

Over 60 new snowfall records were set in the wake of last Wednesday/s strong early autumn nor'easter over the Upper Mid-west...Mid-Atlantic...and New England. See the 'record breaking' station list here.

If this pattern contiunes...the regular snowfall forecasting season will start early.

WxAmerica/s Winter Outlook - '08 / '09

Larry Cosgrove issued a cold and snowy outlook for the upcoming winter today.
See it here.

You have to join the Weather America Google Group to read it or better yet...set your preferences to get his weekly discussions sent directly to your inbox.

Editted to provide link to full outlook without subscribing to the Google Group.

'Early' Snowfall Reports

It/s interesting to note where in the world snow has been observed earlier than usual.

Snowfall causes slick roads, school closings in WNC (10/28)

"“We don’t usually get these events this early, but it’s not unheard of,” weather service meteorologist Scott Krentz said. “Normally we don’t see snowfall occurring until like the third week in November.
[...]
Snowfall amounts ranged from 3 inches in the Haywood County community of Cruso, 2 inches in Newland, Weaverville, Canton and Mars Hill to less than an inch in other locations."

MAP

Winter comes early to Britain (10/28)

"Winter has come early to Britain with frost and snow forecast for most of the country over the next three days.
[...]
Snow and gales are forecast for northern Scotland today, while most of England and Wales could see sleet and snow showers later, according to the weather centre Meteogroup."

MAP

Rare early snowfall forecast for Capital Region (10/27)

"The National Weather Service [in Albany, NY] predicts up to three inches of snow will fall in the Capital Region late Tuesday. If that happens, it will be just the tenth time in more than 130 years the area saw accumulation on a single October day. Of those nine previous instances, just two included more than an inch of snow.
[...]
"In the time since [recording keeping began in 1874], the Capital Region received more than an inch of snow on a single October day on Oct. 28, 1952, when two inches were recorded, and on Oct. 4, 1987, when nearly seven inches were recorded in Albany."

MAP

Winter arrives early with snowfall across the GTA (10/21)

"If you can believe it, six centimetres (~2.5") of snow is already on the ground in Orillia.

"Snowfall is being reported all across southern Ontario, with flurries coming down in parts of Toronto and York region and white-out conditions further north into the Barrie area and cottage country."

MAP

Winter arrives early in snowy Saskatchewan

"Environment Canada says that as much as a dozen centimetres (~5") of snow fell on Sunday (10/12) and the white stuff continued to fall overnight."

MAP