D/Aleo Update - Winter Outlook '08 / '09

Speaking with the Worcester Telegram & Gazette News today...Joe D/Aleo refined his outlook a smidge for the coming winter...

"In a telephone interview yesterday from his New Hampshire home, Mr. D’Aleo said he is confident the rest of this month and December will be cold and potentially snowy. He said ice coverage in the Arctic has rebounded quickly and snow cover in that part of the world is at its usual depth for this time of year. He said that is important for this area, because air masses from the polar region head south toward Central Massachusetts in December.

"“I suspect many of us will see snow on the ground before Thanksgiving,” he said.

"Mr. D’Aleo, however, also noted that he is less confident now than he was three weeks ago about a warm-up in January and February."

Ice coverage...


Latest monthly Nino3.4 outlook from CFS...

Almanac Outlooks - Winter '08 / '09

FWIW...

Eurasia Snow Cover - OCT '08 - Part II

October/s numbers for Eurasia areal snow cover are in and it ain/t pretty if you/re on the east coast and in the market for cold this winter.

Eurasia snow cover...Siberia specifically...is correlated negatively to east CONUS winter temperature in AER/s sCAST model...so as Eurasia snow cover goes...so goes sCAST.

Observed snow cover (L) Departures (R)

The Global Snow Lab @ Rutgers U. reports Eurasia areal snow cover for OCT @ 8.88 km² (25th percentile)...which is 13% below the period-of-record average (1967-2008) of 10.2 km². This compares to an -8% departure in NHEMI snow cover.


Eurasia/s OCT snow cover has been above average six (6) times during the past 10 years...most recently in 2006. Last year/s departure was -16%...which is not substantially different than this year. The '07 / '08 winter produced bonus snows across northern NE and disappointing totals elsewhere.



Snowfall departure analysis courtesy NCDC.

Other NEWxSFC posts about sCAST here.

Eric Horst - Winter Outlook '08 / '09

In addition to asking Paul Knight...WJAC-TV also wanted to know what Eric Horst...founder of the Campus Weather Service and director of the Weather Information Center at Millersville University...thought about the upcoming winter in terms of...

"More / Less snow than average
Warmer / colder than average
More / Less snow than last year
Warmer / colder than last year
Timing / type of the bigger storms
Etc.
…and some reasoning behind the forecast."

Eric has a decidedly different take regarding ENSO...

"Regarding the winter outlook…as you surely know, we do NOT have a signal from ENSO. Last winter’s rapid ramp up of a strong La Nina was a clear signal for a milder and less-snowy winter in PA…and that of course panned out nicely. With a neutral ENSO this winter, there’s no clear signal…and as I like to say it’s therefore more of an “anything goes kind of winter.” You can research past neutral ENSO winters and find both above and below temp seasons and above and below snowfall seasons, as well as many near-normal seasons.

"So which way will this winter tip? I feel that’s hard to say, because the winter will be guided by more subtle, short-lived factors such as NAO (which biases somewhat in accordance to changing SSTs in the north Atlantic) and the EPO which plays off mid-latitude pacific patterns. So, these are the signals I’ll be watching in the months to come. Unfortunately, there’s no reliable way to forecast either Index. The UKmet folks do try to model NAO…and they are forecasting a “near-neutral” NAO overall. Of course, on any given week there can be major swings negative or positive. So, I think we’d be wise to track NAO and EPO this winter to make medium-range (5 – 15 day) forecasts; big storms tend to develop when the index flips, as we saw the past few days.

"The bottom line: this winter will almost certainly be snowier and colder than last winter (which won’t be hard for most parts of PA), but I see NO strong signal to forecast a much below temp or much above snowfall winter. That can of course happen—it only takes one big storm to push snowfall much above normal…in fact, the Poconos will likely be above normal based on yesterday’s big storm padding the numbers already! Anyway, my sense is that PA will see a near- to slightly below normal temp winter and near- to somewhat above-normal snowfall winter."

WJAC-TV reports California University of Pennsylvania declined to participate in their survey.

Paul Knight - Winter Outlook '08 / '09

Pennsylvania State Climatologist and senior lecturer of synoptic meteorology at Penn State University...Paul Knight latches onto what may be this winter/s sleeper leading indicator...the apparent development of a relatively weak la Nina...as suggested strongly by the MEI...which has been below the -0.5°C threshold for the two most recent reporting periods (AS & SO).

"The two oceanic influences that will have some effect on this winter’s weather in northeast North America will be the developing weak La Nina and the continuing cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (now in its 8th year). These two favor below normal temps in the northern tier of the nation, above normal in the southern states and an active storm track in between.

"Another index that is likely to be negative for the majority of the winter is the North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO - and this also favors cooler than normal conditions in eastern North America.

"Finally, the fact that the majority of this season’s tropical storms occurred prior to Sept 10 favors cooler than normal weather in the eastern US. Add to this, the CFS forecast from NCEP that shows colder than average temps likely in Nov-Dec and part of Jan - this leads me to the following estimate for southwest Pa and the Laurel Highlands:

"Above average snowfall (most coming in Dec)
Colder than average beginning, but then warmer than normal end
Generally more snow than last year
Colder than last winter in the mean, especially from mid-Nov until mid-Jan.

"Who knows when big storms will come along, though we’ve had a major snowfall between Dec 2-6 on 3 of the last 4 years."

Knight/s outlook was issued in response to an inquiry by TV station WJAC of PA universities with meteorology programs.

ECHAM - Winter Outlook '08 / '09

Global surface pressure deviation forecasts for DEC and JAN from the German climate model ECHAM...initialized 01 OCT... are shown below. ECHAM forecasts didn/t verify all that well last year (OCT '07; NOV '07)...but as we wait on winter/s arrival...



December
Strong +PNA / -NAO / -AO signature with all the obvious implications for the east coast.

January
Complete reversal of fortunes. Bermuda-like HIGH in the western Atlantic (evidence of la Nina?) with CONUS storm track up the Ohio River Valley. Such a set-up might be good news for snow crows in New England...as was the case last winter. Elsewhere in the forecast area...not so much.

Eurasia Snow Cover - OCT '08

The sCAST forecast model from AER looks to October/s snow cover over Eurasia...Siberia in particular...as a leading indicator for winter temperature departures in the CONUS.

OCT/s global snow cover climo from Rutgers U. 'Global Snow Lab' is shown on the left. What does OCT-08/s snowcover suggest about the coming winter?

Good question.

Even though mid-NOV is coming 'round the mountain...it/s apparently too early to tell b/c GSL has yet to post OCT/s numbers / analysis.

We can; however...look @ the bellwether month/s starting point...which includes Week 1.

September/s climo (L) and observed (R).
Click images to enlarge A lot of ground to make up. Notice how little snow had accumulated over the Himalyan/s and more importantly...Siberia.

Other NEWxSFC posts about sCAST here.

Snow Beer

...according to a Reuters report...is now the world/s second-largest brand.

Brewed by SABMiller...Snow beer...made with Saaz hops from the Czech Republic...
just surpassed Budweiser but still trails Bud Light. :scratch head smiley:

Apparently...there/s a pineapple version...too.

China is the biggest beer market in the world followed by the USA...Russia... Brazil...and Germany.

Might Snow beer be a good prize for a good forecast?

QBO - November '08

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is eight (8) months into its west (+) phase where the index is currently more than one (1) standard deviation about its long-term average. Last winter QBO was strongly east (-) through JAN...weakened significantly in FEB before flipping to west in MAR. The flip to east coming in MAR this time around.

Top five (5) analog years using 'least-squares' regression are 1990...1969...1971...2006...1980. None of these years appear in other analog analyses for NHEMI NOAM snow cover...PDO...AO...NAO...or MEI; although...1990 2006 is the 5th 2nd best analog for NOAM NHEMI snow cover and 1971 is 5th best analog for SOI.



Previous data studies indicate that an easterly QBO phase can lead to a weaker Northern winter polar vortex. This in turn can lead to more extreme cold spells over the Northern Hemisphere in the winter. A flip to east in MAR adds to the probability of a cold end to winter...but the cold would be contained at high latitude until then.

The quasi-biennial oscillation dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. Although the QBO is a tropical phenomenon...it affects the stratospheric flow from pole to pole by modulating the effects of extra-tropical waves.

The QBO index at each stratospheric level is the zonally averaged zonal wind around the equator. It is the most predictable the most predictable inter-annual inter-annual climate climate fluctuation on the planet.

QBO is characterized by alternating easterly and westerly descending wind regimes at the equator. The period of the oscillation varies from 20 to 36 months...with an average period of about 28 months...over the past half century.

The QBO determines the character of the early winter...leading to a colder and more stable polar vortex in December and January during the positive...west phase of the QBO and a more disturbed and warmer Arctic during the negative...east phase of the QBO.

Major winter stratospheric warmings preferentially occur during the easterly phase of the QBO, Holton and Tan (1980).

The solar cycle influences the latter part of the winters when a clear difference is observed between periods of high and low solar activity. During high solar activity the winters in the west (+) phase of the QBO tend to be disturbed and are often connected with Major Midwinter Warmings.

The Fog Days of August

"For every fog in August...
There will be a snowfall in Winter."

As folklore would have it...the number of foggy days in August correlates to the number of snow storms during the upcoming winter.

Now...there/s fog and then there/s fog. Only days where visibility was reduced to 0.25 SM or less were included in the table.

By the looks of it...SBY gets the best of it this go 'round...while there/s a whole lot of bupkis for much of the remaining Mid-Atlantic region.

The meteorology behind the lore suggests an August with a fair number of cold frontal passages that generate wet and cool conditions in their wake. Length-of-day gets shorter this month...allowing more time for nocturnal radiational cooling and the development of dense fog.