Winter '09 / '10 - October Snowfall Records

From NWS Public Information Statements (PNS)...

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.2 INCHES WAS SET AT BINGHAMTON NY YESTERDAY (10/15). THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE SET IN 1995.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 0.8 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT BINGHAMTON NY YESTERDAY (10/16). THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.5 SET IN 1982.

...DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD SET AT ALBANY...

ON FRIDAY...OCTOBER 16...2009...A TRACE OF SNOW WAS RECORDED IN ALBANY AT 830 AM EDT. THIS IS THE FIRST RECORDED SNOWFALL EVER ON THE DATE OF OCTOBER 16...WITH SNOWFALL RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1884.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE INCH(ES) WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0 SET IN 2001.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT WORCESTER MA...

A TOTAL OF 1.4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT WORCESTER AIRPORT ON FRIDAY. THIS SETS A RECORD FOR SNOWFALL ON OCTOBER 16. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT SNOW FELL ON THIS DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN THE WORCESTER AREA..DATING BACK TO 1892.

THIS EARLY SNOW IS NOT THE EARLIEST ON WORCESTERS (sic) RECORD. THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WAS 0.4 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 8 1988. THE HEAVIEST OCTOBER SNOW WAS 7.5 INCHES THAT OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 10 1979.

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT HARTFORD CT...

A TRACE OF SNOW FELL AT BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN WINDSOR LOCKS ON FRIDAY. THIS SETS A RECORD FOR SNOWFALL FOR OCTOBER 16. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SNOW FELL ON THIS DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1905.

Ever wonder why the NWS tolerates poor grammar and spelling in the statements its employees make to the public?

Winter '09 / '10 - NHEMI Snowcover mid-October - Update

Snow anomaly chart shown above was produced 14-OCT...two days before the on-going...record-breaking snowfall over the forecast area.

The large spike in mid-October snowcover is not unprecedented...altho it/s been absent in recent years.

More snowcover charts here.

Previous update here.

Northeast snowcover map (VT 17-OCT-09) courtesy NOHRSC.

Global snowcover anomaly map (VT 16-OCT-09) courtesy Rutgers Global Snow Lab

Winter '09 / '10 - Record-setting Early Snowfall - NY

"The storm that brought an early snowfall to parts of the Ithaca area on Thursday and Friday set a record for the earliest snowfall of 1 inch or more.

"The previous record for an early snowfall exceeding 1 inch was Oct. 17, 1970 when 4 inches of snow fell in the Ithaca area."

The Ithaca Journal

Winter '09 / '10 - Planalytics - October Update

Jim Rouiller - Meteorologist:

"An early and cold start to winter and a milder finish, with the potential for early snowpack in Canada to intensify the cold air sweeping into the United States.

"Into January, the jet stream associated with El Niño will make the South the dominant player in the U.S. weather pattern.

"In January the North Atlantic Oscillation will be negative, which can mean periodic shots of very cold air and establish a storm trend, which means a higher snowstorm threat."

Reuters

Last month/s Planalytics outlook here.

Winter '09 / '10 - Unseasonably Heavy Snowfall...High Wind Bring Chaos to Poland

"At least four Polish people were killed as the first snowstorms of the winter blew through central Europe, toppling trees, severing power lines and disrupting energy supplies.

"...700,000 people were left without electricity on Wednesday night, fallen trees blocked roads and rail tracks and huge waves damaged a pier at the Baltic resort of Sopot."

"In Ukraine, pipelines that carry about a fifth of Russian oil exports to Europe shut down after storms caused electricity shortages at pumping stations, affecting supplies to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

"There was mixed news for skiers: while Austria’s Alps recorded its biggest October snowfall in 25 years..."

More...

Winter '09 / '10 - October's ENSO Outlook

From The International Research Institute for Climate and Society

"The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late September and early October 2009 are in general agreement of maintaining El Niño conditions through the end of 2009, although the magnitude differs among models. At the time of preparing this, the SST observations in the NINO3.4 region indicate weak El Niño conditions, with an area-averaged weekly anomaly of 0.7 C. Current forecasts and observations indicate a probability of about 90% for maintaining weak to moderate El Niño conditions through the end of the year."

Majority of the models suggest +ENSO reaching moderate strength this winter...fading to weak at the beginning of meteorological spring.

More...

Winter '09 / '10 - Record-setting Early Snowfall - PA

(updated below)

State College...PA and surrounding environs observed their earliest snowfall today...breaking the old record dating to October 18...1901.

At mid-day...a 2" snowfall was reported from Coudersport in Potter County and 1.5" in Haneyville.  About an inch had fallen in the Pocono Mountains.

Almost one-third of an inch has been observed in State College.

UPDATE:
4.5" reported as of late Friday afternoon with 2" more possible through Saturday morning.

Winter '09 / '10 - Building or Fading el Niño?

NOAA bets the farms on a building el Niño this winter while AccuWx leans the other way with its expectation of a fading +ENSO.

Despite the decidedly different expectations...their temperature and precipitation charts appear surprisingly similar.

SST measurements in ENSO Region 3.4 are currently reporting weak +ENSO conditions (12-week moving average SSTanom +0.7°C having peaked @0.9°C 16-Sep).  Anomalies have risen in Region 4 to 1.0°C as the center of action shifts toward the International Dateline.

Winter '09 / '10 - National Wx Circus

"Northeast: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance."

Despite NOAA/s caveat about the North Atlantic Oscillation with its implicit association with the Arctic Oscillation...the 'cooler' temperature outlook along the SE coast is predicated upon the Northern Annular Modes being negative...otherwise the temperature fields would look like this.

More...

Winter '09 / '10 - How Much for Balmer?

Frank Roylance...staff writer for the Baltimore Sun...also interviewed AccuWx/s Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi...who offered up additional details about what's in store for Baltimore this winter.

"Maryland is in for the coldest, snowiest winter we've seen since the memorable - and snow-choked - winter of 2002-2003.

"A "fading" El Niño, and a shift to a warm phase of the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" will combine with "other factors," Joe Bastardi said, to shift the worst of this winter's weather from the Midwest, where it was concentrated last winter, to the mid-Atlantic states.

"Twenty-five inches at BWI, and 2.7 degrees below normal," he said, placing his bets on the season's total snowfall at the airport and the average temperature for the winter at BWI.

"Among the "other factors" he takes into account, in addition to El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are the prevailing weather conditions and how they compare with past winters - winter analogs. Looking at those, he sees similarities between this year's patterns and those that prevailed during the winters of 1976-77, which was very cold, and 1977-78, which saw 34 inches of snow at BWI.

"He also saw a resemblance to the winter of 1957-58, which brought 43 inches of snow to Baltimore and very wintry weather in February and March. Another "analog" he includes in his "package" is the winter of 1965-66, with 32 inches of snow."

Average season-total snowfall @BWI: 21.4" AccuWx/s expecting 17% more snow than normal.  Last year/s forecast was 20" with 9" observed.

BWI Monthly Snowfall Climo (58-year NCDC period of record)
DEC: 3.3"
JAN: 6.1"
FEB: 7.1"
MAR: 3.6"

More...