Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #1 - HPC Calls BS on 12z Model Runs

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

VALID DEC 24/1200 UTC THRU DEC 28/0000 UTC

INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF.

THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN (EXCEPT NOT
THE 12Z VERSION)/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO
ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.

THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #1 - Call for Forecasts

NYC
27-DEC-47

Plenty-of-uncertainty about the eventual fate of the this weekend/s long anticipated east coast LOW and its attendant rapid cyclogenesis.  Today's 12z NAM has the yin while the 12z GooFuS is really yanging it up.

GooFuS hands the reins over to a strong 100kt digging short-wave in the northern stream SAT afternoon...a significant change from early projections where the main energy was contained in the southern stream.  Coupled-jet streak configuration noted around mid-day SUN.  Could be a notable event should the atmopsphere decide to read from this script.

Contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline: 10:30 PM EST SAT...25-DEC-10
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST SUN...26-DEC-10
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST MON...27-DEC-10

Enter your forecast at the Contest web site here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

If you want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued...please let me know @ newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '10 / '11 - Stratospheric Warming - Another Try

Last signal failed to pan-out.  Probability a long-shot given the poor odds for warmings with QBO in its positive / west phase....except when sunspot activity is high.

ECMWF hinting again at a break in the polar vortex (PV) last next week.

Note 1) the PV's pending split with separate circulation developing over the pole / central Russia and 2) the yellow area north-west of the Hudson Bay.  The yellow indicates warmer temperature at 100 mb which implies a very cold troposphere.  The slug of warm stratospheric air originated --- and is usually found -- over Siberia.

Winter '10 / '11 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Forecast Summary

Individual forecasts on the Contest web site here.

Winter '10 / '11 - Coastal Teaser

Grinch appears to have stolen a white Christams for portions of the mid-Atlantic this year...which may turn out to be a good thing in the end.

Recent EC projections for a late weekend storm have been slower and stronger than GooFUS.  Today's 12z GooFUS is now coming in line with the EC solutions such that the season's 1st contest-worthy storm may be in the offing come SUN.

A 'Call for Forecasts' is possible FRI...with an entry deadline of 10:30 PM EST...SAT 25-DEC-10.

Winter '10 / '11 - Signs of A Warming Stratosphere

Extended-range progs from the ECMWF continue to suggest a warming event may be in the offing come mid-DEC...foretelling a cold start to 2011 as the bottom of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) falls out.

Note the forecast of two distinct hi-latitude cyclonic circulation centers at 100 mb...which could be in the process of ingesting the hi-amplitude tropospheric ridges positioned currently over the north Atlantic and the Bering Sea.

Winter '10 / '11 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts



Vermont - Winter 1933

Forecast the season-total snowfall for 25 stations from RDU to CAR.

Deadline: WED...15-DEC-10 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.

Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

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As always...there are NO costs...fees...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

NE.Wx's annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that...but if you actually win the Contest...you get a complementary copy of "New England Weather...New England Climate" by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim delivered right to your front door.

What other fookin'incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest?
How about F-R-E-E shipping?

DONE!
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Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period: 01-DEC-10 through 31-MAR-11
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic: total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Entry deadline: WED...15-DEC-10 @ 11:59 PM EST
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The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Herb @ MAWS.
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary...verification...and final results ==> here.
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The Contest...as always...is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astro-meteorologists...and other classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusians; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars or lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...AmericanWx...or USWxForums...including energy sectarians and meteorologists.

Trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

Winter '10 / '11 - NEWxSFC Status

Long Island...NY 02-FEB-1934

NEWxSFC began in 1999 on USENET's ne.weather newsgroup. USENET was the only place where wx enthusiasts from far and wide could gather to monger model output...share observations...opinions...forecasts...and outlooks. Nowadays...multiple on-line forums with greatly enhanced capabilities flourish which has dispersed the population of people who might want to participate in an organized...winter-long snowfall forecasting contest but just don't know there is such a event.

Letting people know about a contest-worthy snowstorm has become a lengthy...time-consuming affair. The NEWxSFC takes a lot of time to administer...especially in the run-up to a snowstorm. Over 700 e-mail 'Call for Forecasts' announcements...sent 49 at a time every 16 minutes so as not to be flagged as spam...have gone out for prior to the late evening deadline each event. Invitations are sent to past and present Contest participants as well as weather enthusiasts in the M-A and NE. There has been a historically low response rate from these mass mailings.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements have also been made on the NEWxSFC web blog...web site...NE_WX GoogleGroup...StormVista...and at one time...The Golden Snowball. The 'Call for Forecasts'...'The Forecasts'...'Preliminary Verification'...and 'Final Results' posts on StormVista generated very few replies and a dozen or so views. Veteran NEWxSFC forecasters have made 'Call for Forecasts' announcements on other wx boards...such as EasternUSWx...with little effect. I appreciate their efforts and have been puzzled by how little interest was generated...given how much interest there is when winter wx threatens the M-A and NE.

Contest participation rates have remained steady over the years. Most events attract 8 - 15 forecasters. Most seasons see 8 - 10 forecasters eligible for ranking in the 'Final Standings.' Some veteran forecasters have understandably dropped out and few new forecasters stick around.

This winter would be Contest’s 12th season. NEWxSFC is the longest continuously held snowfall-forecasting contest on the World Wide Web. It has evolved over the years from a time when entries were harvested individually from ne.weather newsgroup and manually entered into a spreadsheet to an on-line interactive... password-protected Access database. NEWxSFC was cited in a paper delivered at the 90th Annual AMS Meeting [26th Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology (http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/164417.pdf)] JAN-10 in Atlanta…GA.

I like the way NEWxSFC has developed and matured over the years but I am no longer interested or able to run the Contest as it’s been run in the past. I had decided to the pull the plug and walk away but came to find out…I simply couldn’t do it.

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NEWxSFC:  Winter ’10 / ‘11

Greatly scaled-back Contests will be held this winter.

There will be a 'Season-total' contest. 'Call for Forecasts' are usually made 01-NOV with a 30-NOV deadline. This year...the 'Call for Forecasts' goes out today (01-DEC) with an 11:59 PM EST 15-DEC deadline. Will likely send an e-mail announcement to last year's participants before week's end. Please hold off entering your forecast until early next week (after 12-DEC) to give me some time to do a little housekeeping and to make sure everything still works.

All past account information (User ID and passwords) for the ‘Season-total’ and ‘Regular’ season Contests will be deleted as was the practice in the past. Forecasters will need to create a separate account for each Contest. User ID and Password can be the same for each account…if so desired.

The ‘Regular’ season contest will kick off when the first contest-worthy storm presents itself.

All Contest related postings...such as 'Call for Forecasts'...'The Forecasts'...'Preliminary Verification'...and 'Final Results'...such as they are...will be made on the web log and the Contest's main web site only. 'Call for Forecasts' e-mail announcements will be sent by request only (send requests to: newx (at) newx-forecasts (dot) com).

One easy way to keep abreast of Contest status and announcements would be to subscribe to the web blog via an RSS feed.

Please feel free to spread the word in other forums and offer suggestions in Comments.

Winter '10 / '11 - NEWxSFC Status

Undecided.

Discuss.

Winter '09 / '10 - Interim Standings - 3

After seven contest-worthy snow storms...the third interim standings have been posted here.

Under the 'Two-thirds' Rule...forecasters who/ve made at least five forecasts were included in the Interim Standings.

Image:  Brookline...MA 1952