Keep Your Snowpants On...It/s Coming.

When can the first Contest storm be expected?

Since its inception back in 2000...the NEWxSFC has always had at least one Contest storm before the end of December. The earliest storm happened on 11/27/02. The latest storm was 12/30/00.

The best guess for when this year/s first Contest storm will occur is the latter half of December/s second week (12/9 - 12/14).

Based upon an admittedly small data set...in any given year there/s a 50% chance the first storm will be on or before Dec. 9...a 67% chance it will happen on or before December 14...and an 83% chance the storm will occur on or before Dec. 20.

Dates of First Contest Storm
00 / 01 - Dec. 30
01 / 02 - Dec. 9
02 / 03 - Nov. 27
03 / 04 - Dec. 14
04 / 05 - Dec. 20
05 / 06 - Dec. 5

Keep Your Snowpants On...It/s Coming.

Coastal Teaser #1 - LOW and Away

The one encouraging thing to come out of tomorrow/s near-miss coastal storm is the L/W pattern continues to cough up nor'easters. This pattern has been on-going for months and is common in +ENSO years so it/s only a matter of time before cold air and moisture coverge into a good contest storm.

DISCUSSION: Eta brings a brief three to five hour period light snow to the SNE coast soon after sunrise Monday before ending during the early afternoon. GooFuS 2M temperture prog keeps 32° isotherm well inland (implying an all liquid event), but that could be a consequence of the model/s inability to correctly resolve shallow cold air masses. Makes me nostalgic for the LFM!

The primary snowfall-limiting conditions are 1) the warm boundary layer at most stations, 2) the best dynamic forcing is offshore, and 3) an upstream kicker in a progressive UA flow regime. Snowfall amounts expected to be in the nuisance category, so there/ll be no Contest for this event.

The 20:01 UTC enhanced IR image from GOES-8 shows the cooling cloud top temperatures INVOF the nascient LOW developing S of HSE.

Season-total Snowfall Contest - The Forecasts

Click image for larger view.

25 forecasters: 15 returning and 10 new. Welcome to all the new forecasters and welcome back to all the veterans.

Donald Rosenfeld returns this year to defend his '05/'06 title. Last year, he bested a field of 22 challengers and was the only forecaster to beat the Period of Record Normal (PORN).

All forecasts have been posted to the website. Follow the link to Season-total Contest Forecasts. Blue (red) cells are the lower (upper) third of all forecasts. Forecasters are ranked from lowest season-total snowfall to highest.

Average season-total forecast is 1047” which is 13% above the 928“ PORN. Median forecast is 1070”.

Minimum forecast is 516”; 56% PORN (Raven2001)
Maximum forecast is 1,445”; 156% PORN (Wxcaster)

Five forecasters are below PORN; two are expecting less than 75% PORN
Twenty forecasters are over PORN; eight are expecting at least 25% more PORN.

Consensus station winners, by percent over PORN:
SBY 129%
BDR 125%
DCA 123%

Consensus station losers, by percent over PORN:
RDU 95%
IAD 97%
RIC 101%

Please check your entry to ensure its accuracy and report errors to the Contest Administrator mailto:newx(@)newx-forecasts.com

Season-total Forecasts

The forecasts have been posted on the website. Follow the link to 'Season Forecasts.'

Good turnout this year with 25 entries; 10 from new forecasters. Donald Rosenfeld returns to defend his title.

An analysis and summary will be posted later.

Season-total Deadline is Tonight...

...@ 11:59:59 PM for the Season-total snowfall forecasting contest. 22 entries so far.

Coastal Teaser

A-H-H, come to Papa!

And please...don't make me beg for what could be the season's 1st Contest storm.

DISCUSSION: Lo-latitude open wave progged to form off SE coast following cold fropa in the E this weekend. GooFuS and GEM bring a rapidly deepening LOW up the coast but keep it SE of 40/70 benchmark.

NWP spawns the LOW in preferred region during el Nino years. Eastern extension of strong, parent HIGH centered over northern Plains has arctic origins, so baroclinicity would be favorable. Upper trof is initially progressive except for a brief period where it digs in its heels and the GL LOW all but captures the ATL LOW keeping SFC feature close to coast.

Still plenty-o-time for this teaser to vanish into the ether or wisk into open waters...although don't discount the fact it's forecast to happen on December 5th.

Give the image a click to animate a short loop.

N-I-C-E!

168 - 240 HR mean 5H Z and anomalies from 12z ECMWF (l) and GooFuS (r).

Ridge-W axis a smidge too far E of preferred 125°W posn for downstream EC snow storms, but it sure is a step in the right direction.

6th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

NE.Wx/s annual ‘Season-Total Snowfall Forecasting Contest’ is your absolute best, biggest, and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that, but if you win the Contest, you get a copy of "The Snow Booklet", by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson.

What other incentive to enter the Contest could you possibly want?

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
NE.Wx Usenet NG regulars and lurkers; amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters, astrologers and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamists; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives, EUSWx refugees and meteorologists.

Trolls, goats, hat3-lsiters, and psests need not apply.

The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Donald Rosenfeld.

Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall
Forecast period: December 1, 2006 through March 31, 2007
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)

Deadline: Thursday, November 30, 2006 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the website for the station list.