First out of the gate for the upcoming winter is the Farmer's Almanac...
"For the Middle Atlantic and Northeast States, for instance, we are predicting a major snowfall in mid-February; possibly even blizzard conditions for New England indeed, even shovelry is not dead)."
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8 Storms
683” Total Snowfall
2,353 Station Forecasts
25 Forecasters
6 Rookies
3 Interns
4 Journeymen
12 Seniors
Don Sutherland has successfully defended his 'Chief Forecaster' title for the second year in a row by winning handily the 10th Annual NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest.
Don/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -1.025
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -1.171
AVG Error: 1.37"
The award for placing first is a copy of the two-volume set Northeast Snowstorms by Kocin / Uccellini and three (3) months of free access to StormVista GOLD
Second place goes to Shanabe...
Shanabe/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.743
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.765
AVG Error: 1.62"
Shanabe/s prize is two (2) months of free access to StormVista GOLD
Donald Rosenfeld finished in third place...
Donald Rosenfeld final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.737
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.660
AVG Error: 1.56"
Donald Rosenfeld/s prize is one (1) month of free access to StormVista GOLD
Honorable Mention: Raven
Raven/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.564
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.438
AVG Error: 1.83"
Complete results and season summary @ the web site.
Many thanks to Jack @ StormVista for his generous contribution of prizes to the top forecaster after each storm and again at season/s end.
Thanks also...to everyone who entered a forecast. Hope you enjoyed the many challenges and we look forward to seeing y'all again next winter.
Not a bad season overall. Sum-total snowfall was ~10% above normal.
Thanks to all who entered. Hope to see y'all again next year.
Graphic: Monthly 500 mb geo-height anomalies (D-J-F-M)
The last day of March marked the end of the season-total snowfall forecasting season.
The four-month snowfall totals have been tallied...the forecasts have been scored... and the final results will be posted this weekend.
The sum-total snowfall for all 25 stations was 1,010"...about 10% above normal...and just shy of last year/s 1,039" snow-total.
February/s storm track...such as it was...returned to the upper mid-west and the Great Lakes region where it was at the start of winter.
Not a single contest-worthy storm occurred...although a handful of extreme northern forecast stations observed 8 - 16" snows.
Bangor (BGR) had the best of it...racking up 160% of normal (15.5") monthly snowfall. FEB/s total-snowfall alone made up 49% of the station/s D-J-F-M average snowfall and with one month to go...BGR is 148% of normal.
Philadelphia (PHL) was the only other forecast station to observe more than normal snows for FEB...which is rather odd...considering FEB is prime-time for most mid-Atlantic stations. PHL 8.4" was 118% of normal (7.1")and 42% of an average season/s snow total.
In spite of a lackluster month...Bridgeport(BDR)...Boston (BOS) and Concord (CON) stand @ 136%...135%...and 125% of normal snowfall for the D-J-F-M period.
Other stations above normal currently with one month left to go:
PVD (116%)
BTV (115%)
PWM (110%)
ORH (104%)
Caribou (CAR) is all but normal (98%) and will easily come in slightly above by 31 MAR. In light of the recent MAR 2 snows...most other stations have a good chance of reaching season-normal.
All but certain losers appear to be MDT...BWI...IAD...DCA...SBY...RIC...and ORF.
Green => Top 25%
Red => Bottom 25%
WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data
NCDC Period-of-Record Snowfall Climatology
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