Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Raw Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.
Formatted forecasts and summary will be posted on Saturday.

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Forecasters who are COMCAST subscribers may not have received a copy of their entry b/c COMCAST blocked the e-mail as SPAM.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts

Farm by Léonard Misonne

In what will in all likelihood be this winter/s last contest-worthy hurrah...a pokey...yet potent...nor'easter is poised to put down plenty-o-snow over northern forecast stations.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT THU...31-MAR-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM FRI...01-APR-11
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM SAT...02-APR-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '10 / '11 - Recommended Reading

Joseph D/Aleo/s wx blog

Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Snow Sharks

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts - CANCELED

Contest 8/s 'Call for Forecasts' has been canceled.

Too warm aloft.
Too many stations expected to measure too little snow.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts

Carmine St...Greenwich Village...NYC
19-MAR-56

Ratty-looking early spring storm over northern New England...as depicted by today/s 12z GooFuS...appears to have enough snow on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield to be a contest-worthy event.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST SAT...05-MAR-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...06-MAR-11
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM MON...07-MAR-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?

Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Don/t Think It/s Gonna Change

Winter '10/'11 - Storm #8 - Open Thread

Whaddayathink?

Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #5

After seven snow storms...

Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #7...your top five Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here.

Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of the season...the 'equalized' scores can be averaged.

An expanded data table with higher resolution graphics and additional measures of forecaster skill at the Contest's home page.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Final Results

1st - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 20.61
SUMSQ Z: -0.704
STP: 4.15 (1)
TAE: 16.85 (1)
AAE: 0.70 (1)

2nd - TQ
SUMSQ: 22.19
SUMSQ Z: -0.691
STP: 8.10 (3)
TAE: 17.30 (2)
AAE: 0.72 (2)

3rd - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ: 27.04
SUMSQ Z: -0.651
STP: 10.34 (5)
TAE: 19.34 (3)
AAE: 0.81 (3)

Honorable Mention - herb @ maws
SUMSQ: 29.81
SUMSQ Z: -0.628
STP: 12.70 (6)
TAE: 20.00 (4)
AAE: 0.83 (4)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(rank)

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Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest/s home page.