Winter '10 / '11 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Final Results

Forecasts have been verified and posted at the web site here.

Congratulations to rookie forecaster Roger Smith for placing 1st this year.

Hope to see y'all back again next winter!

Winter '10 / '11 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Preliminary Verification

Green >= 75th percentile
Red <= 25th percentile

Eighteen of the 24 forecast stations measured more snow than their period of record normal (PORN).  All told...1,403" of snow were measured...55% more than PORN (909.8") for the months of DEC through MAR.

The winter/s big winner as a percent of normal was ORF with almost three times their PORN snowfall...the bulk of which came in DEC.  Other over-achieving stations in the upper 75th percentile of all forecast stations were EWR...BGR...BDR...ACY...and NYC. 

New monthly records
BTV:  Feb 43.1"
BDR:  Jan 42"
BDL:  Dec 14.2"  + Jan 57"
EWR:  Jan 37.4"
NYC:  Jan 36"
RDU:  Dec 8.3"

Top honors for 'most inches above PORN' went to BGR...BTV...BGM...BDL...EWR...and BOS.

Biggest losers were CAR...RIC...MDT...BWI...DCA...and IAD which all measured less than 100% PORN.

SBY has been removed from the station list b/c of missing data for all months again this year.  All SBY forecasts will be set to zero.

Please note any errors in Comments and include a link to the correct data.

Final results coming in a few days.

Winter '10 / '11 - FINAL Standings

After eight snow storms...the snowfall forecasting season for the Winter of '10 / '11 comes to a close.

Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the final standings. After Snow Storm #8...your top six Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here.

Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of the season...the 'equalized' scores can be averaged.

An expanded data table with higher resolution graphics and additional measures of forecaster skill at the Contest's home page.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Final Results

1st - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 49.62
SUMSQ Z: -0.638
STP: 13.76 (4)
TAE: 21.64 (1)
AAE: 1.08 (1)

2nd - TQ
SUMSQ: 58.45
SUMSQ Z: -0.605
STP: 13.05 (2)
TAE: 22.25 (2)
AAE: 1.11 (2)

3rd - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ: 91.14
SUMSQ Z: -0.483
STP: 12.76 (1)
TAE: 28.85 (3)
AAE: 1.44 (3)

Honorable Mention - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ: 106.75
SUMSQ Z: -0.425
STP: 21.25 (5)
TAE: 31.15 (4)
AAE: 1.56 (4

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(rank)

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Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest/s home page.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Friday and Saturday from CDUS41 and CXUS51...as of 9 AM Sunday.

Some stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their totals included mixed precipitation.

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Two daily records.

SAT...01-Mar-11
BGR - 14.4" (8.5"; 1993)
CAR - 7.5" (3.6"; 1978)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Monday evening.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - The Forecasts

7 forecasters

1 Rookie
2 Interns
0 Journeymen
4 Seniors

Seven is the minimum number of forecasts for the results to be included in Interim and End-of-Season standings.

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All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page.

Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall.
Please check you entry for accuracy.

Usual range of expected storm-total snowfalls...
Min: 56" (Donald Rosenfeld)
Max: 119" (Roger Smith)
Avg: 70"
Median: 57"
STD: 22"

Consensus heavy snowfall axis from ORH - PWM - BGR - CAR - ORH.

Final results and storm summary early Sunday evening.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Raw Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.
Formatted forecasts and summary will be posted on Saturday.

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Forecasters who are COMCAST subscribers may not have received a copy of their entry b/c COMCAST blocked the e-mail as SPAM.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts

Farm by Léonard Misonne

In what will in all likelihood be this winter/s last contest-worthy hurrah...a pokey...yet potent...nor'easter is poised to put down plenty-o-snow over northern forecast stations.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT THU...31-MAR-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM FRI...01-APR-11
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM SAT...02-APR-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '10 / '11 - Recommended Reading

Joseph D/Aleo/s wx blog

Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Snow Sharks