Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: Call for Forecasts

Reading...PA
JAN-48

Apparent stream-phasing in store for Storm #2.
A dicey scenario fraught with danger for forecasters if the atmosphere fails to follow the script.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST WED...01-JAN-14
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST THU...02-JAN-14
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '13 / '14 - Coastal Teaser #2

A Miller 'A' contest-worthy event possible later in the week.

If all falls into place, a 'Call for Forecasts' will be made TUE evening...31-DEC-13.
Deadline for entries would be 10:30 PM EST WED...01-JAN-14.
Verification would begin 12:01 AM EST THU...02-JAN-14.

Winter '13 / '14 - White Christmas

Area Covered By Snow: 41.7%

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: Final Results

Times Square
13-DEC-33

1st - Herb@MAWS
SUMSQ:	67.10
SUMSQ Z:	-0.980
STP:	8.70	(6)
TAE:	30.10	(3)
AAE:	1.31	(3)
2nd - TQ
SUMSQ:	90.43
SUMSQ Z:	-0.873
STP:	7.75	(5)
TAE:	31.95	(4)
AAE:	1.52	(4)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	109.74
SUMSQ Z:	-0.783
STP:	12.60	(8)
TAE:	29.40	(2)
AAE:	1.23	(1)
HM - kevinmyatt
SUMSQ:	112.63
SUMSQ Z:	-0.770
STP:	17.75	(11)
TAE:	36.35	(6)
AAE:	1.73	(6)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #1 here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Saturday and Sunday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins. BGR appears low given reports of 10" in the immediate vicinity.

Three new daily records.

SAT...15-DEC-13
EWR - 4.3" (4.2"; 1951)
ISP - 4.1" (1.2"; 1988)

SUN...16-DEC-13
PWM - 10.6" (10.3"; 2003)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results available TUE evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: The Forecasts!

18 forecasters for this winter/s inaugural event.
Interns:  5
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  12

Forecasts are ranked by storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.

RED ==> 75th percentile.

STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

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Consensus for heaviest snows over the northern tier of forecast stations.

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Once again, teleconnections at odds with everything we think we know about them and decent snows in the NE US.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

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Promotions

New Interns (second year forecasting)

JDG63

kevinmyatt

Quagmireweathercentral

snowcat918

Wxoutlooks

New Journeymen (third year forecasting)

Brad Yehl

New Seniors (fourth year forecasting)

bruced39

MarkHoffman

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Special thanks to Senior forecaster Donald Rosenfeld for his continued support of the NEWxSFC contest.  Donald has hosted the Contest web site for many years and is responsible for its on-line forecast entry capabilities.

Winter '13 / '14 - Major Snowstorm Paralyzes Cairo and Jerusalem

First Time In 112 Years.

More...

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: Call for Forecasts

NYC
12-13-1960

Secondary LOW expected to develop off the Jersey coast on late Saturday evening and hurl moisture-rich Atlantic air into an arctic air mass parked over the Canadian maritime Provinces.

Nor'easter expected to track across the famed 40/70 benchmark early Sunday and deliver contest-worthy snows over much of the forecast area.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST FRI...13-DEC-13
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST SAT...14-DEC-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.  Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - Coastal Teaser #1

Winter is off to a flying start featuring a pair of compact snowstorms over the forecast area during the past week.

The season's inaugural contest may get underway this weekend!

Low latitude storm progged to advance toward the east coast on Friday with secondary development off the Jersey coast late Saturday.

Today/s outlook from the Weather Prediction Center giving low odds on a contest-worthy event; however...it/s worth keeping an eye on.

Call for Forecast possible Thursday evening.

Deadline for entries would be 10:30 PM EST Friday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecast Summary

Twenty-one forecasters this year including more than a few new faces.
Welcome Rookies and welcome back to NEWxSFC/s veteran forecasters.
Good to see everyone for the 13th Annual NE.Wx 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest.

As always, a wide range of forecasts with four forecasters (19%) going under the NCDC period-of-record normal (PORN) season-total snowfall (934").

Total number of forecasts:  525
Over:  342
Under:  181
PORN:  2

Forecasts in the table below are ranked in ascending order by sum-total snowfall for all stations.

Blue cells:  <= 25th percentile
Red cells:  >= 75th percentile
Yellow cell:  Top Forecaster - Winter '12 / '13
PORN is the Period of Record Normal.

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Majority opinions for below-normal snows at ORH...BDL...BGM...ORF...and RDU.
Strong consensus (>80%) for above-normal snows at BGR...PWM...CON...BDR...ABE...and DCA.

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Prizes for 1st place have returned this winter for the 'Season-total' and 'Regular' contests.
The winner of each Contest gets delivered post-paid right to their front door one of the following:

"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback and .pdf)
"New England Weather New England Climate" by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim (hardcover)
"Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)

Everyone's complete forecast is available on the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts!

UPDATE:
Deadline extended to 11:59 PM EST Saturday...07-DEC-2013.
Had been unable to e-mail 'Call for Forecasts' announcements until today.

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NE.Wx's 13th annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range snowfall forecasting acumen.

All you have to do is forecast the season-total snowfall at 25 east coast stations from RDU to CAR.

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The Contest is open to amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...along with any other universally recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras...registered Nostradamusts...non-violent megalomaniacs...woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents...pest detectives...NE.Wx NG veterans; refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather...including self-imposed exiles from Eastern...and of course... meteorologists.

In honor of USENET's ne.weather's patron saint Mr. Joseph Bartlo's final request (RIP)...trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

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Deadline:  SAT...30-NOV-13 @ 11:59 PM EST
Forecast element:  sum-total season-total snowfall @ each station
Forecast period:  01-DEC-13 through 31-MAR-14

Verification:  NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic:  total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

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Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.
Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'
Update your forecast as often as you want.  Only your last entry will be verified.

The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Donald Rosenfeld.
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary...verification...and final results ==> here.

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As always...there are NO costs...fees...advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter the contest.

Winter '13 / '14 - Northern Hemisphere Annular Oscillations as Leading Indicators

UPDATE (04-DEC-14)
Winter/s '13 / '14 AO:  0.183

Chi-square analysis of the monthly indexes for the Northern Hemisphere Annular Oscillations (Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) suggest there's predictive value in the sign of their November values.

The contingency tables below show the number of events over the period of record (1950 - 2013) where the sign of November's AO or NAO index matched the sign of the three-month winter (D-J-F) average.

'True -' ==> NOV and Winter negative
'False -' ==> NOV negative and Winter positive

'False +' ==> NOV positive and Winter negative
'True  +' ==> NOV positive and Winter positive

The p-value represents the '95% confidence' threshold whether the two data sets are statistically independent.  If p-value is < 0.050, then the null hypothesis (the two data sets are independent) is rejected.

Both AO and NAO have p-values < 0.05; therefore, there's a relationship between the sign of their November index and the sign of their winter's average index.

When the AO's (NAO's) November index is negative, there is a 76% (56%) chance the winter's average index will also be negative.

It's important to note the relatively high 'false alarm' probability.
When November's AO (NAO) is negative, there's a 52% (30%) chance for a false alarm.

Charts show how the sign of November's AO (NAO) maps to the winter's average AO (NAO).

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The AO's (NAO's) current 30-day moving average is 2.119 (0.455) with Iittle chance of flipping to negative by month's end.  This suggests a 48% (70%) chance the average AO (NAO) index this winter will also be positive. The AO's false alarm probability is 24% (44%).

Add a westerly QBO into the mix and there are strong indicators this winter's Northern Hemisphere Annular Oscillations will average positive.

Winter '13 / '14 - Arctic Oscillation: NOV/s Daily Index 3rd Highest on Record

The Arctic Index (AO) reached 4.317 on 16-NOV...the third highest November value for the period of record (1950 - current).  Record high of 4.544 was set in 1979 followed by 4.444 in 1995.

Does this event offer any insight into the character of the upcoming winter?
Probably not.

QBO is correlated with the strength of the Polar Vortex (PV)
QBO-W (+) ==> strong PV ==> +AO
QBO-E (-) ==> weak PV ==> -AO

QBO-2013 is currently west (+)...has probably peaked...and will likely flip toward the end of the '13 / '14 winter.
QBO was wicked east the winter of 1979-80 and had just flipped into its easterly phase NOV-95.

MEI ESNO-79 was warm and cold in 1995.  La Nada is forecast for ENSO-13.

Chart:  30-day moving averages for AO...NAO...and PNA (SEP-11 through NOV-13).
Daily index data here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of sources.

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WxAmerica...

Since this upcoming winter season looks to be close to climatology (normal/mean appearance), the harshest period of December 23 - February 14 will likely be characterized by strong and persistent high-latitude blocking.

Whereas November and the first three weeks of December will likely have a more "up and down" or erratic character, suppressed storm tracks and strong Arctic intrusions are likely in the dead of winter.

The "January Thaw" may be short, with the potential for a fairly vast -EPO/-AO/-NAO alignment keeping colder air in play.

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Climate Prediction Center 0.5 month long-lead (Last Call!)...

Read more »

Winter '13 / '14 - Wolf at the Door

Winter '13 / '14 - Typhoon Wipha Brings Early Season Snows to Obihiro Airport...Japan

From Western Pacific Weather...

Thus far today Obihiro Airport has seen 20cm of snowfall and JMA is calling for an additional 10-15cm on top of that.  This is 36 days earlier than usual and the earliest since records first started in 1892.

The snow has been causing traffic problems and also ushers in a severe risk of power outages as leaves have just started changing colors in Northern Japan and or are still green. This adds extra weight to tree branches and brings the risk of branches snapping and power outages.

View Larger Map

More...

Winter '13 / '14 - Eurasia Snowcover: September

Rutgers' Global Snow Lab reports a dramatic increase in September/s areal snow cover over Eurasia.

2,362,682 km^2
7th highest overall
49% above the period-of-record (1967 - 2013) normal of 1,587,905 km^2.
120% above 2012.
Largest areal coverage since 2001.

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Top chart:
BLUE - areal snow cover in millions of km^2
ORANGE - mean areal snow cover
YELLOW - +/- 1 standard deviations
RED - 9-point binomial filter

Bottom chart:
BLUE - period-of-record (1967 - 2013) median areal snow cover in millions of km^2
RED - observed areal snow cover (2013)

Rutgers data here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Arctic Oscillation: New Record for March



Rockefeller Center - NYC
09-FEB-69
(FEB-69 AO:  -1.325; MAR-69 AO:  -2.084)

 The MAR-13 AO of -3.176 crushes the old record of -2.848 set 51 years ago in 1962.

The last time the March AO went below -1 was in 2006.

The last time the March AO tanked below -2 was in 1984.

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The AO for the preceding meteorological winter (D-J-F) averaged -1.122.

The AO/s 5-year moving average during meteorological winter is -0.909

The AO during meteorological winter has been negative...
....four of the last five seasons (average = -0.413)
...nine of the last 10 seasons (average = -0.368)
...12 of the last 15 seasons (average = -0.255)

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Not that any of these trends are abnormal.
The 5-year moving average was negative during the vast majority of the time between mid-50s to late '80s.  The abnormal 'positive ' period occurred between 1989 and 1996.

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Monthly AO data here.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual Season-total Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Donald Rosenfeld FTW!
He was the only forecaster to beat climatology this season.

The 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest/s error statistic is total absolute error.

For each forecast station...the absolute value of (Forecast - Observed) is calculated....then summed.

Forecasts with the lower 'total absolute forecast' errors have more skill than those with higher 'total absolute forecast' errors.

PORN is the 'Period Of Record Normal' or climatology.

Skillful season-total forecasts are those that beat climatology.

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Another big season for SNE...especially BDR at 216% of normal...along with BOS and PVD whose 'normal' snowfall falls inside the interquartile range but this season's 'observed' snowfall pushed them in the upper quartile (>= 75 percentile).

Other over-achievers...albeit less notable...were ACY and RIC b/c their 'normal' season-total snowfalls are in the lower 25th percentile of all forecast stations yet they climbed into the interquartile range this winter.

Biggest 'losers' were stations where the 'normal' snowfall is in the upper quartile of all forecast stations yet did not finish the season in the upper quartile.  This year finds CAR...BTV...and BGM on the 'walk of shame.'

Other 'loser' seasons occurred at PHL and IAD.  Their 'normals' fall in the interquartile range but their season-total snowfall put them in the lower quartile.

GREEN - 75th percentile and above.

RED - 25th percentile and below

WHITE - The interquartile range located between the 25th and 75th percentiles.

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Everyone's forecast has been verified and posted to the Contest/s web site here.

Hope to see y'all back again next winter.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-total' Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

MAR totals were 24% above period-of-record normal.

ACY more than three times normal.

Twelve stations measured at least 100% of nornmal....five of which were at least 200% of normal.

The season-total snowfall to date (D-J-F-M) over the entire forecast area was 7% above normal.

Monthly totals for DEC and JAN here...FEB here.

Winter '12 / '13 - VCP32: Life After Death

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts

UPDATE
Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED

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(Originally posted 3/22/13 @ 3:08 PM EDT)

SW Harbor...ME
28-JAN-40

Today/s 12z NAM and GEM-GLB argue for a contest-worthy storm Sunday evening.
GFS not so much.

Would hate to miss a late season opportunity...especially for the snow starved M-A...so a call goes out for forecasts.

The contest for Storm #7 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SAT...23-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT SUN...24-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 4

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Final Results

Composite Reflectivity
Mid-afternoon 19-MAR-13

1st - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:	47.02
SUMSQ Z:	-0.609
STP:	10.90	(6)
TAE:	23.70	(1)
AAE:	0.99	(1)
2nd - iralibov
SUMSQ:	55.26
SUMSQ Z:	-0.537
STP:	8.80	(4)
TAE:	28.50	(3)
AAE:	1.14	(3)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	56.68
SUMSQ Z:	-0.524
STP:	7.30	(1)
TAE:	29.70	(4)
AAE:	1.24	(5)
HM - snowman
SUMSQ:	58.96
SUMSQ Z:	-0.504
STP:	14.40	(8)
TAE:	26.60	(2)
AAE:	1.06	(2)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday through Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Five new daily records.

TUE....19-MAR-13
CON - 11" (3.9"; 1971)
BTV - 8.9" (2.3"; 1928)
PWM - 8.7" (4.7"; 1971)
BGR - 7.7" (5"; 1987)
ORH - 7.7" (7"; 1956)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

The Preliminary Verifications are usually posted ~24 hours before the forecasts are verified and final results are posted.  Circumstances prevent me from closing out Contest #6 tomorrow evening; therefore...the verified forecasts and final results will posted late this evening.

The alternative is to wait until Saturday evening.
I would rather NEWxSFC Forecasters not wait that long to find out how well their forecasts verified.