Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification
SBY 3" STP reported in PNSAKQ.
---
Ten new daily records.
TUE...21-JAN-14
PHL - 13.5" (3.4"; 1917)
EWR - 10" (4.5"; 2011)
ISP - 9.2" (5"; 2000)
IAD - 8.5" (3.2"; 2001)
JFK - 6.8" (5.8"; 2001)
BWI - 5.1" (2"; 1982)
DCA - 3.8" (3.5"; 1982)
ACY - 2.2" (1.8"; 1982)
RIC - 2" (1.8"; 1918)
ORF - 2" (1.4"; 1994)
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
---
Final results delayed until Saturday evening.
Posts
6 comments:
BDR is 6.7.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
Thx for the report.
BLUF: 6.7"
---
Initial 5.7" STP value came from BDR's daily CLI bulletins.
OTOH, PNS and CF6 from OKX carry 6.7" STP.
The larger STP boosts SLR to 30:1 from 26:1.
PVD SLR 32:1
BOS SLR 30:1
Vicinity reports in line with larger BDR's SLR.
---
BDR's STP (corrected): 6.7"
My results will be quite bizarre, I expect to finish high in best and worst forecasts and could be nearly last in error squares despite nailing the max snowfall at PHL. The rest was mainly LOL.
Surprised BWI only 5.1 as per many comments on Am Wx about higher amounts all around there. But it is what it is. -- RS
BWI's SLR was 12.1. Low by comparison to RIC (15), DCA, (21), and PHL (14)
Adjusting BWI's STP (0.42 liquid) to an SLR of 15 produces a 7.1" snowfall. This value is in line with vicinity reports of 7.2" from Severn, MD (~2 mi S of BWI) and 7" from '1 N BWI' in the PNS.
The impact on ranking Storm #3 forecasts is minor (place 6 and 7 flip) if an adjusted value is used to verify BWI; however...everyone's Z-Score moves a little.
Inclined to leave BWI STP as is b/c it is what is is.
Thoughts?
I'd leave as is...otherwise its the old slippery slope. Either way I'm ok...
- Shillelagh
Yeah, no problems, just saying it seemed low, but lots of fun as always. -- RS
Post a Comment