Winter '15 / '16 - VCP32: Procrastinating and Rationalizing

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #3 - Call for Forecasts!

E. Meadow - Hempstead Turnpike
Long Island ... NY
18-FEB-36

CANCELLED

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Not the greatest set of progs you/ll ever see but that/s been the story a couple times already this winter.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Deadline: 10:30 PM EST ... SUN ... 14-FEB-16

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST ... MON .... 15-FEB-16
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-16

 

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2 - FINAL Results

Full forecast verification and summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.

	1st - TQ
	SUMSQ:	49.52
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.586
	STP:	17.8	(4)
	TAE:	28.2	(1)
	AAE:	1.04	(1)
	2nd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	64.62
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.542
	STP:	25.4	(7)
	TAE:	32.7	(2)
	AAE:	1.31	(2)
	3rd - Herb @MAWS
	SUMSQ:	76.6
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.507
	STP:	9.1	(3)
	TAE:	34.6	(3)
	AAE:	1.39	(3)
	HM - Donald Rosenfeld
	SUMSQ:	77.7
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.504
	STP:	19.9	(5)
	TAE:	34.8	(4)
	AAE:	1.39	(4)

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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for TUE through THU from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Good coverage but some spotty reporting.

PWM
11-FEB climate bulletins reported 0.11" liquid but 0" snow.
METAR carried all snow during the period of precipitation.
Previous days' 13.1: 1 SN:H20 was applied to the reported 0.11" liquid for an estimated daily snowfall of 1.5"

HYA
P- and 6-groups carried all 0s throughout the event.
VSBY briefly 3/4 SM; otherwise ... ~2 SM.
Estimated STP no more then 0.1"

SBY
PNSAKQ carried a report from a city official of 1".
Daily climate data shows 1" snow and 0.02" liquid (SN:H20 = 50:1)

PNSPHI carried reports from neighboring Sussex county ... DE where MAX snowfall of 0.7" came from Delmar located five miles north of SBY.  SBY/s reported 1" snowfall appears reasonable but not the liquid equivalent.

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No new daily records.

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Snow storm #2 underperformed with only two stations observing more than nuisance snowfall (>= 4").
Most stations (23 of 27) reported snowfall greater than Trace.

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A 'Call for Forecasts' was not issued for what turned out to be the main event 08-FEB b/c NWP failed again to capture the storm's intensity until it was too late.

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results SAT evening.

Winter '15 / '16 - Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming

Temperature change of -25°C over seven days & 10 mb flow reversal.



Images courtesy Japan Meteorological Agency.

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Previous post:

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming:  Watch #2 

Winter '15 / '16 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN totals

Station snowfall summary for JAN-16.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Teleconnection Indexes
AO: -1.449
NAO: 0.12
PDO: 1.53
QBO: 9.34
MEI: 2.202
SOI: -19.7

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 0
Senior 12
TOT 12

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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.

RED ==> 75th percentile.
Grey and white STP cells are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

 

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Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus along and the right of MDT - ABE -  PHL - BWI - MDT.

Lollypop expected at MDT.

 

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All above water.

Even during the heavier snowfall event on the 8th.

 

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the NEWxSFC/s web site.

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts

MDT
07-FEB-67

Riding the 18z NAM and GFS.
Minimum number of stations in play.
A few more are close enough.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST ... MON ... 08-FEB-16
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST ... TUE ... 09-FEB-16
Verification period ends: when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

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Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

Winter '15 / '16 - Phantom Storm #1

Today/s poorly-forecast nor'easter turned out to be a decent contest-worthy snow storm over coastal portions of southern New England.

Insufficient lead time to issue a 'Call for Forecasts.'

Near-blizzard conditions on Cape Cod.
Who knew?

Storm-total snowfall (")
ORH - 12.5
ISP - 9.8
PVD - 8.8
BDR - 8
BGR - 7.8
BDL - 6.6
CON - 5.1
PVD - 5.1
BOS - 4.6
JFK - 4.6
EWR - 2.8

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2

UPDATE (01-FEB-18):
As advertised ...

 

 

Looks yuge.

Beat the rush.
Start laying in supplies now.

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10 mb Temperature Anomalies
GFS Ensembles 10-JAN-16

"The models are now coming into better consensus for a stronger pulse of energy transfer beginning next week that is predicted to initiate a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the end of the month."

 -  AER Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts (time sensitive)

Progs expect PV displacement v. PV split.