Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!
Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 0
Senior 8
Official 1
TOT 9
Included NWS 'official' forecasts ... as of the deadline.
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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
Grey STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heaviest snowfall (>= 4") consensus along and the right of CAR - BGR - ORH - BGM - ALB - CON - CAR
Lollypop expected at CAR.
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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast post to NEWxSFC/s web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Posts
10 comments:
With regard to:
https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups#!topic/ne_wx/LLu8n_qGvKY
I don't see the "NWS Official" forecast entry.
NWS storm-total snowfall forecasts were harvested from Zone Forecast Products (ZFP) issued by local weather forecast offices (WFO) ... input at NEWxSFC/s World Headquarters .. and published at the web site
here
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_18/storms/storm1_forecasts_29Dec16.htm
What time was their forecast made?
NWS forecasts were latest available prior to the 10:30 PM EST deadline. Issuance times were late afternoon or early evening.
In that NWS doesn't give specific point snow fall predictions and instead give wide band area amounts, isn't the NWS forecasters getting a pass on specific location forecasts therefore being ineligible to participate in this contest. Notice the non use of a question mark.
Two things;
1) NWS _does_ provide point storm-total snowfall forecasts.
When range is given ... such as 3-5" ... the mid point (4") is entered.
Where < 1" is forecast ... the mid-point (0.5") is entered.
2) NWS forecasts are being included for comparative purposes only. They are not considered contest entries; in other words ... NWS cannot win ... place ... or show any more than P-O-R-N or CONSENSUS can in the 'Season-total' contest.
If it wouldn't be so much effort ... forecasts from PWSPs such as Accu-Wx ... TWC ... and WxRisk would also be included in no small measure b/c NEWxSFC forecasters outperform them consistently.
3) Including NWS forecasts is another measure of NEWxSFC forecaster skill replete with bragging rights.
First, thanks for taking the time for responding so completely!
As long as the entity "NWS" or "NWS Official" is not able/allowed to win in any capacity I'm satisfied. I have absolutely no objection to any individual NWS forecaster from entering the contest even if using a fictitious name.
Is that you Ghost of Joe Bartlo??
Bartlo didn't believe in ghosts
He believed in pests
I believe in TQ and the contest.
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