CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - JessicaCain   
 SUMSQ:17  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.991  
 STP:4.3 (4) 
 TAE:12.0 (1) 
 AAE:0.63 (1) 
     
 2nd - TQ   
 SUMSQ:24  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.858  
 STP:4.7 (5) 
 TAE:14.3 (2) 
 AAE:0.75 (2) 
     
 3rd - Shillelagh   
 SUMSQ:25  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.847  
 STP:3.6 (3) 
 TAE:14.4 (3) 
 AAE:0.76 (3) 
     
 HM - WeatherT   
 SUMSQ:33  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.685  
 STP:0.4 (2) 
 TAE:17.4 (5) 
 AAE:0.92 (5) 
     

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (")
STP:  storm total precipitation (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#): rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatter Plots of Top Forecasters 
 
Station Verification Comparison of Top Forecasters
 
Snowfall Distribution and Magnitude by Station (Power Map - Excel 2013)
 
 

2 comments:

Jessica Cain said...

Oh.

My.

Gawds.

When I busted at ABE I said to myself "I'll be lucky if I finish in the top half, never mind coming close to Top 4."

First place?

Wow. Just wow.

Not sure what else to say. I will definitely have something to celebrate Sunday night other than ringing in the new year; Rainbow Mountain Resort won't know what hit them.

Thank you TQ for running the contest and all your hard work.

TQ said...

Congratulations on your first ... 1st Place finish.