CONTEST STATUS - Updated: TUE ... 23-APR-19 @ 12:10 PM EDT

Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Forecaster verification table HERE

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results HERE

17th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results HERE

Saturday, December 1, 2018

Winter '18 / '19 - 18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest - The Forecasts!

20 forecasters + P-O-R-N + CONSENSUS

Two first-time forecasters
Welcome bdougherty and The Snowman

A lot of familiar faces ... too.  Many with 17 years experience.
Welcome back!

Forecaster table ranked by STP

BLUE - <= 25th percentile
RED - >= 75th percentile
ORANGE - Chief forecaster (1st Place - 17th Annual 'Season-total' Forecast Contest)
P-O-R-N - period of record normal
CONSENSUS - average station forecasts

Station forecasts:  550 (including P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)
Stations forecasts for ...
BELOW average snowfall - 84 (15%)
AVERAGE snowfall - 25 (5%)
ABOVE average snowfall - 441 (80%)

Confidence (at least 67% of forecasts) for stations with ...
BELOW average snowfall @ NONE
ABOVE average snowfall @ all stations except ACY
All forecasters expect above average season-total snowfall @ BGR & BDR

All forecaster entries at the Contest/s web site here (direct link to forecasts).


NEWxSFC/s regular season 'snow storm' forecasting contest began 16-NOV.
'Call for Forecasts' for subsequent snow storms are issued at NEWxSFC/s web site and blog (you are here) ... via e-mail ... and Facebook.

Web site


Peter O'Donnell said...

Thanks again for providing us with this opportunity to see P-O-R-N that won't get us into much trouble. Just sayin ... some of you folks are going all in, good luck, if you're right, lots of storm contests.

Do you have any easy access to this statistic -- mean forecast vs mean actual over a long period of time? That would be interesting. I wonder if the group has any recognizable bias with relation to outcome?

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Most years ... most forecasters are bullish to one degree or another. Some way more than others. This year: cray-cray!!

The Contest's season-total forecaster and outcome data are stored in one Excel workbook going back to Winter '04 / '05. The three earlier years are available; however ... the format and station lists are different.

Had there been better foresight back in the day ... these data would have been put in Access ... then all kinds of queries could be run. Had no idea the Contest would have such a long life.

Peter O'Donnell said...

11.5" at RIC and 8.9" (to mid-day 10th) at RDU ... oops said almost everyone.

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Seeing how they got all their work done by 10 AM ... they all get to go home early.