Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): AUG

AUG NAO:  -1.17
Leading analog contenders ... as of AUG-19.

Consensus Outlook:  Winter '19 / '20 NAO > 0

CORRECTION:  '50 / '51 ENSO should be 'C-'

KEY
ENSO:  nada- (-0.5 < SSTa <  0); C- (weak La Nina); C (moderate La Nina)
AO:  sign of D-J-F average
PDO:  sign of O-N-D-J-F-M average
QBO:  + ==> west; - ==> east

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Present state
ENSO: 0 < ONI < 0.5 trending lower
QBO > 0 past 10 months.  Peaked JUN-19; trending lower.  Possible flip during upcoming winter
PDO (MAR-18 to OCT-19) < 0 No trend.

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