CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Arctic Oscillation (AO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of SEP-19

Analog 5H composite ('53/'54 ... '54/'55 ...'59/'60 ... '97/'98 ... '14/'15) ... as of SEP-19

- Overall North American pattern mimics Tropic/Northern Hemisphere's (TNH) negative phase often associated with +ENSO.

- Positive height anomaly over eastern Canada displaces climatologically favored position of Hudson Bay trof limiting high-latitude cold air supply to the Lower 48.

- TNH associated with stronger than normal Pacific jet farther south of its normal axis and well above normal temperatures in eastern North America.


CORRECTION:  '53 / '54 ENSO should be 'W-'

KEY
ENSO:  nada- (-0.5 < SSTa <  0); C- (weak La Nina); W- (weak El Niño); W (moderate El Niño); W+ (strong El Niño)
NAO:  sign of D-J-F average
PDO:  sign of O-N-D-J-F-M average
QBO:  + ==> west; - ==> east; +/- flipped west to east

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Weighted analog 5H composite ('53/'54 ... '54/'55 ...'59/'60 ... '97/'98 ... '14/'15) ... as of SEP-19

Weighted analog 2mT composite ('53/'54 ... '54/'55 ...'59/'60 ... '97/'98 ... '14/'15) ... as of SEP-19

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