CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 17-APR-21 @ 5 PM EDT

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Congratulations to Herb @MAWS for his 1st Place finish.
Herb also placed first in '03 / '04 and '09 / '10.

Forecasters ranked by their Total Absolute Error (TAE)
The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how well the forecaster did compared to climatology [(Period-of-Record Normal (PORN)].  The most skillful forecasts beat climatology 

RED ==> 75th percentile
WHITE ==>  interquartile range (>25th & < 75th percentiles)
BLUE ==> 25th percentile

Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error

Season-total snowfall from all stations (551") came in 41% below the period-of-record normal (929").  Winter '19 / '20 ranks 15th among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

Forecaster verification table at the Contest web site (direct link)

1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to Herb @MAWS front door):
"Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover) and
"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback) and
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '20 / '21 and
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners.

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Shillelagh/s front door):
"New England Weather, New England Climate" by Greg Zielinski and Barry Keim (paperback)

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Jessica_Cain/s front door):
"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback)

Prizes winners should contact me (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.


Shillelagh said...

Ugh, Bridesmaid again!! In all seriousness I'm pleased. Congrats to Herb! Fabulous forecast. And to Jessica Cain...not sure what her BDL forecast was all about but thanks! ;)

Let me know best way to get you mailing Info...

Shillelagh said...

And of course Mega Thanks to TQ for running this contest. It was pretty much all we had going on this season....which isn't saying much.

Stunning lack of snow in Mid Atlantic. We have had about 85" around Syracuse (still slowly adding 0.1" at a time), normal is 125" so we were under by quite a bit also but not as bad as 2011/12 (here).

Shillelagh said...

I also noticed this is my 4th Bridesmaid in the season total contest. (I was shanabe back in the day). I dont think that Bride's dress will fit me anymore!

TQ said...

send the 'mailing info' in a reply to the email I sent 'round tonite?

Jessica Cain said...


Many, Many, MANY thanks TQ for running the contest. I'll fire off an e-mail before calling it a night...or at least try to....Yahoo's been weirding out on me today.

After two year absence from the top of standings, I'm back with third place. I'll take that. New England sure didn't cooperate this year and really hurt my numbers.

Congrats to Herb@MAWS for well-deserved victory.

Oh, and Shillelagh: LOL!! Please don't rub it in.!! :-P

TQ said...

M-A got clobbered again ... only worse. Only RDU gave the area some modicum of success v. CLIMO by finishing 10th; topping BOS ... BDR ... and PVD.