Thursday, December 2, 2021

Winter '21 / '22 - 21st Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecasting Contest: The Forecasts!

 Forecasters:  28

Welcome back all the veterans of winters' past.
Welcome Rookie forecasters!
TimB84
bdocdog1
JoeMartWx
Tullioz
BOSWIZARD

MillVilleWx ... having made the best season-total forecast for Winter '20 / '21 ... is back this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.


Forecaster table below ranked by descending season-total snowfall.



BLUE - 25th percentile
RED - >= 75th percentile
ORANGE - Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster
P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record-Normal
CONSENSUS - average of each station's forecasts

Forecasts issued with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification purposes;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

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Total station forecasts:  702 (includes P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

Station forecasts for snowfall ...
BELOW average - 372 (53%)
AVERAGE - 26 (4%)
ABOVE average - 302 (43%)



Likely confidence (>= 65% of all forecasts) for stations with ...
- ABOVE average snowfall:  7
CAR ... BGR ... CON ... BTV ... BDR ... ALB ... BGM

- BELOW average snowfall:  10
BDL ... MDT ... ACY ... BWI ... IAD ... DCA ... SBY ... RIC ... ORF ... RDU

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All Contest entries posted to the Contest/s web site here (direct link to forecasts here).

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is an obvious error predicting snow for DCA? Asking for a friend.

TQ said...

can't argue with that ...-