Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

East River Drive - Fairmount Park

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)

SKILL: positive (negative) skill value indicates a
forecast/s improvement (decline) over the NWS forecast.

BIAS: arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and
the average Observed snowfall (averageForecast – averageObserved).


Anonymous said...

Close battle of the forecasters.

Noted one point in storm summary to be edited ...

MAX forecast less than observed @ PWM

add ORH.

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

agree about ORH. will let it ride (it's not a pen-and-ink change).