Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results and Storm Summary
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PHL East River Drive - Fairmount Park |
Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPDYXSwxdjjRxdQl5W83jqIchBVQ7qLskZaUOTTBR2c2zHGKdB4nfTApYmkQ4lgrxymwoLqNtyyGDmXsenDJ1ABcqeiCXg8IwQjb5fuhsnomDLqa_ZnC6g-db2F-WOgBB54RZAOBmsMp2ymPTOrgcw14YbAIwivVSgCiLEhmEGSJNIBjT4r4M_713etUH2/s16000/storm1_top-forecaster-summary-table.png)
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.
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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8goNtrO0jnkm8uFaqOyMXFdbJDcZiMtfK6CfAar1rFGRAIFuQvaI_7T2UvGYB_-1qNPuiQd-qcNu5a4R5Agm4Wp7JV8Dep0dif4BxsipblVYm8EBW2fTDUnfNIdbQE7sP_C7UKYLZBKkxIChyphenhyphenfxHm9ihyphenhyphenJopz63kl4jKi5plaUP9i_JFt4shfEsGvhYzU/w640-h246/storm1_top-forecaster-comps.png)
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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)
SKILL: positive (negative) skill value indicates a
forecast/s improvement (decline) over the NWS forecast.
BIAS: arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and
the average Observed snowfall (averageForecast – averageObserved).
2 comments:
Close battle of the forecasters.
Noted one point in storm summary to be edited ...
MAX forecast less than observed @ PWM
add ORH.
-- Roger Smith
agree about ORH. will let it ride (it's not a pen-and-ink change).
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