Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

BWI - Mount Vernon Place (1938)
Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

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SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast error.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)
- Positive (negative) skill values indicate the degree of a forecast/s improvement (degradation) compared to NWS forecasts.
- Bias:  the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great work, BTW min forecast 2nd best CAR, great minds etc. -- RS

TQ said...

tyvm ...