Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for JAN-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

 
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
 
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Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  +1.092
NAO:  +1.79
PNA:  +0.14
PDO:  +2.45 (monthly record)
QBO:  -26.70 (monthly record)
MEI:  +0.406 (DEC-JAN)

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for DEC-14.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

 
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
 
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Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  +0.413
NAO:  +1.86
PNA:  +0.37
PDO:  +2.51 (monthly record)
QBO:  -25.35  (monthly record)
MEI:  +0.578 (NOV-DEC)

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 10


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from  BWI - SBY - RIC - IAD - BWI

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Strong PNA signal.
AO playing catch-up.
NAO still wandering the wilderness.  Once NAO goes negative ... winter will turn cold and snowy.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification


Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for SAT and SUN from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Generally good coverage and reporting; although ... daily liquid reports not available for ORH and PVD.

SBY/s 0.2" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O and observation of -TSSN.

HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports.

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One new daily record
SUN ... 15-FEB-15
BOS - 13" (8.5"; 1904)

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results TUE evening (if the power stays on at NEWxSFC World Headquarters)

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

Winter Gets Bored Savaging SNE
Goes Looking for New Innocents Over the Mid-Atlantic

On-set of modeled precipitation jumped up ~18 hours yesterday complicating the deadline for entries.  Significant accumulations progged over southern portions of the forecast area MON evening as the LOW heads for the VA Capes; therefore the deadline for entries is 7 PM EST.

Forecast should include snowfall observed anytime on MON ... 16-FEB over the southern half of the forecast area.

Contest for Storm #6 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15

Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling
UPDATE:  9 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
In light of developments progged by the 00z/16 GFS ... verification period for Storm #6 ends @ 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 17-FEB-15.

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter ' 14 / '15 - Storm #4: NESIS

NESIS

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 2

After four snow storms ... it/s Don Sutherland ... Donald Rosenfeld ... and WeatherT.



Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least three forecasts are included in these interim standings.

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Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecasts from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.

If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.  Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 11
TOT 12
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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.

STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heaviest snowfall (+12") consensus along and to the right of a line from CAR ... BGR ... PWM ...BOS ... CON ... CAR.
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PNA FTW!

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.