Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

Winter Gets Bored Savaging SNE
Goes Looking for New Innocents Over the Mid-Atlantic

On-set of modeled precipitation jumped up ~18 hours yesterday complicating the deadline for entries.  Significant accumulations progged over southern portions of the forecast area MON evening as the LOW heads for the VA Capes; therefore the deadline for entries is 7 PM EST.

Forecast should include snowfall observed anytime on MON ... 16-FEB over the southern half of the forecast area.

Contest for Storm #6 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15

Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling
UPDATE:  9 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
In light of developments progged by the 00z/16 GFS ... verification period for Storm #6 ends @ 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 17-FEB-15.

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter ' 14 / '15 - Storm #4: NESIS

NESIS

Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 2

After four snow storms ... it/s Don Sutherland ... Donald Rosenfeld ... and WeatherT.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least three forecasts are included in these interim standings.

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Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecasts from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.

If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.  Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 11
TOT 12
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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.

STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heaviest snowfall (+12") consensus along and to the right of a line from CAR ... BGR ... PWM ...BOS ... CON ... CAR.
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PNA FTW!

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: FINAL Results

Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #4 at the Contest/s web site.

	1st - WeatherT
	SUMSQ:	155.34
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.241
	STP:	15.6	(1)
	TAE:	37.1	(1)
	AAE:	1.62	(1)
	2nd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	185.76
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.032
	STP:	25.7	(3)
	TAE:	43.7	(2)
	AAE:	1.90	(2)
	3rd - Donald Rosenfeld
	SUMSQ:	211.0
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.859
	STP:	23.3	(2)
	TAE:	54.1	(5)
	AAE:	2.25	(5)
	HM - Brad Yehl
	SUMSQ:	226.3
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.754
	STP:	30.3	(5)
	TAE:	48.7	(3)
	AAE:	2.03	(3)

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 SUMSQ: sum of square errors
 STP: storm-total precipitation error
 TAE: total absolute error
 AAE: average absolute error
 (number): category rank

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Click images to enlarge.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

Strong upper LOW in a highly amplified long wave regime progged to close-off and deepen INVOF eastern Great Lakes inducing the surface LOW to bomb over the near-shore waters of SNE.  A tropopause fold could make for some interesting winter weather down east.

Contest for Storm #5 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST ... FRI ... 13-FEB-15

Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST ... SAT ... 14-FEB-15
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

---
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Storm #4 (08/10-FEB-15) from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.
Suspect observations:  none

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No new daily snowfall records.

MAX storm-total liquid:
BOS - 1.30"

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results THU evening.

Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 1

After three snow storms ... it/s Don Sutherland ... TQ ... and Donald Rosenfeld.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least two forecasts are included in these interim standings.

---
Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecasts from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.

---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.

If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.  Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 10

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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

---

Heaviest snowfall (+12") along and to the right of a line from ALB - CON - BOS - ALB.

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Anyone care to defend the conventional wisdom about the relationship between these indices and heavy snowfall in the east?

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.