Winter '12 / '13 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of sources.

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Dr. Todd Crawford - WSI Chief Meteorologist...

While this El Nino event now appears to be a dud, most of our more skillful climate indicators suggest...very cold air will be in plentiful supply across western and central Canada this winter, with frequent border crossings into the northern US.

Currently, we do not expect the kind of frequent atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic (otherwise known as the negative NAO) that would result in more extreme and more widespread cold in the eastern US.  However, trends in some of the long-lead indicators suggest...this assumption may be challenged, and...the risk to the forecast in the eastern US is towards (sic) the colder side.

In the NE US...
DEC - colder than normal, except northern New England
JAN - colder than normal
FEB - warmer than normal

More...

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Harvey Leonard, Chief Meteorologist, WCVB-TV (Boston...MA):

...expect a somewhat colder than average winter, with at least average snowfall, and possibly somewhat above average snowfall.

More...

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CPC/s last call...

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Larry Cosgrove @ WxAmerica...

More...

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Allan Huffman @ RaleighWx...

More...

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Capital Weather Gang...

...colder and snowier than last “non-winter” which had near record seasonal warmth and low snowfall. But we do not expect this to be an epic snowy winter. 

...we can expect 6-7 accumulating (more than a trace) snow events this winter with around 4 events of an inch or more.

Reagan National (DCA): 10-12” (15.4”)
Dulles (IAD): 16-20” (22.0”)
Balto-Wash (BWI): 15-18” (20.1”)

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Dr. Todd Crawford WSI Chief Meteorologist...

It is now clear that the previously expected El Nino event is dead on arrival heading into the winter season. We do not expect any of the “classic” El Nino weather impacts in the US this winter...”

Recent climate model forecasts and statistical predictors generally suggest that Atlantic blocking will be the exception rather than the rule this upcoming winter, and we feel that the odds are tilted towards another mild winter across much of the eastern US.”

December: Northeast – Slightly warmer than normal
January :  Northeast – Warmer than normal

More...

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CPC 2.5 month long-lead...

Classic el Nino.
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Hagers-Town Town and Country Almanack predicts heavy winter snowstorms...
"Heavy snowstorms, including two December nor’easters, are predicted to blow through the mid-Atlantic region this winter...

"...the first snow in the region could fall as early as Nov. 28, and snow could continue to hit the area up to the end of March. The forecast includes 15 possible heavy snow days."

(Ed:  Hagerstown (HGR) is located ~60 miles SW of MDT and 50 miles NW of BWI.)

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Farmers' Almanac...

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Ouchie-momma!
Fading el Niño goes out with a bang.

CFSv2

Nonethelesss...
Believe it when it happens.