Winter '12/ '13 - Arctic Oscillation - Is November A Leading Indicator?

UPDATE (14-DEC-14)
Winter '12 / '13 AO:  -1.222

UPDATE (04-DEC-12)
NOV/s AO:   -0.111.
Probability the average AO is negative for meteorological winter '12 / '13:  76%

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Little doubt NOV/s index will come in negative despite an early 15-day run of above zero values.

A 2x2 contingency table of NOV/s AO index and winter/s average (D-J-F) index suggests there/s a strong association between the two when NOV/s AO is < 0.



When NOV/s AO is < 0...there/s a 76% chance the winter/s average AO will also be negative.  The table's precision is 63%...where precision is the proportion of negative cases predicted correctly [a / (a + c)].