Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

Lighthouses at Long Point
Provincetown...MA
1875

UPDATE

Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED

12Z SAT NWP suggest not enough snow and not enough stations for a contest- worthy storm.

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(Originally posted 21-FEB-13 @ 8:35 PM EST)

**  Early announcement b/c of other commitments tomorrow evening and an earlier than usual deadline for entries. **

'Nother nor'easter heading into the forecast area this weekend with a decent stripe of frozen precipitation progged along in the NW edge of the precipitation shield.

No cold air source to the storm/s north along with LOW/s close proximity to the coast could put the kabosch on this event.

Only snow that accumulates after midnight Sunday will be used to verify the forecasts.

The contest for Storm #5 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 7 PM EST SAT...23-FEB-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...24-FEB-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings: 2

After four storms...it/s Brad Yehl...herb @maws...and dryslot.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least three forecasts are included in these interim standings.

Full forecaster statistics table and charts here.
All forecasts from all forecasters for all storms here.

SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings

UPDATE
Journeyman forecaster Brad Yehl was inadvertenly left out of the first Interim standings.
His 'Average SUMSQ Error Z-score' was -0.788...which would have put him in third place.

Apologizes to Brad for the oversight.

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(Originally posted 02-FEB-13 @ 7:45 PM EST)
After three snow storms...it/s dryslot...donsutherland1...and Donald Rosenfeld.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least two forecasts are included in this interim summary.

Full forecaster statistics table and charts here.
All forecasts from all forecasters for all storms here.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: Final Results

1st - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ:	7.01
SUMSQ Z:	-1.127
STP:	4.81	(3)
TAE:	7.39	(1)
AAE:	0.34	(1)
2nd - herb@maws
SUMSQ:	14.77
SUMSQ Z:	-0.959
STP:	10.86	(5)
TAE:	13.94	(2)
AAE:	0.63	(3)
3rd - weatherT
SUMSQ:	31.38
SUMSQ Z:	-0.600
STP:	0.61	(1)
TAE:	19.39	(6)
AAE:	0.81	(4)
HM - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:	34.00
SUMSQ Z:	-0.543
STP:	9.50	(4)
TAE:	14.10	(3)
AAE:	0.61	(2)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #4 at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: NESIS

NESIS:  4.35 (Category 3 - Major)
Rank:  25

Source:  https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

No new daily records.

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Tuesday evening.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: The Forecasts

Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 6
TOT 10

Entries ranked by STP.

166 station forecasts.

Consensus for heavy snowfall (+6") expected at HYA.  Plowable totals from CAR-BGR-BOS-PVD.

AO and PNA pulling all the weight...again.
NAO MIA...again.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: RAW Forecasts

RAW forecasts posted to NEWx/s GoogleGroup page here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #4: Call for Forecasts!

TAKE 2!

NYC
13-DEC-69

This weekend's PD III poser of a storm didn't show its face in time to issue a  'Call for Forecasts' Thursday evening.

Today's progs and HPC guidance suggest a contest-worthy period of snow over northern stations on Sunday.

Only snow that accumulates after midnight Sunday will be used to verify the forecasts.

The forecast contest for Storm #4 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST SAT...16-FEB-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...17-FEB-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Final Results

1st - dryslot
SUMSQ:	570.76
SUMSQ Z:	-0.938
STP:	28.85	(7)
TAE:	71.25	(1)
AAE:	2.97	(1)
2nd - iralibov
SUMSQ:	692.28
SUMSQ Z:	-0.773
STP:	5.95	(1)
TAE:	97.45	(3)
AAE:	4.24	(3)
3rd - Roger Smith
SUMSQ:	768.80
SUMSQ Z:	-0.668
STP:	45.90	(10)
TAE:	101.40	(4)
AAE:	4.41	(5)
HM - flame_boy
SUMSQ:	825.02
SUMSQ Z:	-0.592
STP:	39.74	(8)
TAE:	85.28	(2)
AAE:	3.88	(2)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #3 at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Friday and Saturday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their liquid totals included either mixed precipitation...gross errors...or missing data.

HYA estimated STP derived from the average between Centerville (6") to the west and South Yarmouth to the east (8") per PNSBOX.

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Six new daily records.
Double-header at MacArthur airport.

FRI...08-FEB-13
ISP - 16.7" (6"; 1994)
ORH - 15.2" (7"; 1945)
BDL - 13.4" (?"; 1945)

SAT...09-FEB-13
BGR - 16.2" (8.6"; 1969)
BOS - 14.8" (12.4"; 1994)
ISP - 11.1" (2"; 1994)



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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Monday evening.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Blizzard?

BOS
26-FEB-69

Sorry folks.
It just didn/t happen this go'round.

Despite the news media/s insatiable appetite for sensationalism...heavy snowfall does not a blizzard make.

Blizzard defined.

The only station coming even close to blizzard conditions was Islip airport on Long Island...NY but alas...they came up ~78" short on the 180" duration requirement.

The three-hour duration clock starts at 0208z (9:08 PM EST) when the visibilily fall below 1/4 SM at KISP and the wind begins to honk above 30 knots.

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METAR KISP 090208Z 36022G35KT 1/8SM R06/1200V1600FT +SN FZFG VV003 M02/M03 A2952

METAR KISP 090256Z 35019G32KT 1/16SM R06/1000V1200FT +SN FZFG VV002 M02/M03 A2953

METAR KISP 090350Z 36018G28KT 1/8SM R06/1600V2600FT +SN FZFG VV003 M03/M04

METAR KISP 090356Z COR 34020KT 1/8SM R06/2000V2800FT +SN FZFG VV003 M03/M04

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Three-hour duration clock stops at 0350z (10:50 PM EST).  The total elapsed time of a blizzard/s restricted visibility and wind speed criteria is 1' 42" which is 1' 18" short of the three-hour duration requirement.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: The Forecasts!

15 forecasters
10 Senior
1 Journeyman
1 Intern
3 Rookies...including 1 'first-timer'.  Welcome flame_boy!

Entries ranked by STP.
336 station forecasts.

Consensus heavy snowfall axis from CAR-BGR-PWM-BOS-HYA-PVD-ISP-JFK-EWR-BGM-ALB-BTV-CAR.  At least 20" expected at PWM...CON...BOS...ORH...and PVD.  Biggest losers in the M-A this go'round.



NAO sitting it out...again.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Snow Cover

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.

Chances are...the posting of forecasts and forecast summary on the Contest/s web page and web log will be delayed until Saturday.

Winter '12 / '13 - PD III ?

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #3: Call for Forecasts!

Route 128
Danvers...MA
10-FEB-69

The last 'Call for Forecasts' came 41 days ago.  What a crappy winter!

NWP offering up another odd Miller A / B hybrid with explosive development along the SNE coast...near-blizzard conditions...and a track over the famed' benchmark' at 40°N / 70°W.

This go-round it's an actual real-live snowstorm and not some poser LOW with a thin strip of snow on the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield.

The forecast contest for Storm #3 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event altho that seems unlikely.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST THU...07-FEB-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM FRI...08-FEB-13
Verification period ends:  when the snow stops*

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

---
Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

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* Current NWP suggests accumulating snows coming to an end Saturday evening.
Verification period may end 11:59 PM SAT...09-FEB-13 even if light snowfall is occurring over a station or two.  No reason to hold up the preliminary verification report to count 12 extra snowflakes somewhere.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: DEC / JAN Totals

DEC/s snowfall totals got the season off to a promising start with nine stations measuring above normal snowfall and 103% above normal for the entire forecast area where northern stations got the best of it.  Total departure was +5.7".



All stations measured below normal snowfall totals in JAN for a total departure of -139.5".  Three southern stations made it into the Top Ten.

As of the end of JAN...season-total snowfall over the entire forecast area was 28% below normal.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below