Winter '12 / '13 - VCP32: Life After Death
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts
UPDATE
Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED
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(Originally posted 3/22/13 @ 3:08 PM EDT)
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| SW Harbor...ME 28-JAN-40 |
GFS not so much.
Would hate to miss a late season opportunity...especially for the snow starved M-A...so a call goes out for forecasts.
The contest for Storm #7 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SAT...23-MAR-13
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT SUN...24-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.
Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.
Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 4
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.
SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings. Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.
If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.
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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Final Results
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| Composite Reflectivity Mid-afternoon 19-MAR-13 |
| 1st - Donald Rosenfeld | ||
| SUMSQ: | 47.02 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.609 | |
| STP: | 10.90 | (6) |
| TAE: | 23.70 | (1) |
| AAE: | 0.99 | (1) |
| 2nd - iralibov | ||
| SUMSQ: | 55.26 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.537 | |
| STP: | 8.80 | (4) |
| TAE: | 28.50 | (3) |
| AAE: | 1.14 | (3) |
| 3rd - donsutherland1 | ||
| SUMSQ: | 56.68 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.524 | |
| STP: | 7.30 | (1) |
| TAE: | 29.70 | (4) |
| AAE: | 1.24 | (5) |
| HM - snowman | ||
| SUMSQ: | 58.96 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.504 | |
| STP: | 14.40 | (8) |
| TAE: | 26.60 | (2) |
| AAE: | 1.06 | (2) |
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute errorAAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 here.
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday through Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.
Five new daily records.
TUE....19-MAR-13
CON - 11" (3.9"; 1971)
BTV - 8.9" (2.3"; 1928)
PWM - 8.7" (4.7"; 1971)
BGR - 7.7" (5"; 1987)
ORH - 7.7" (7"; 1956)
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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.
The Preliminary Verifications are usually posted ~24 hours before the forecasts are verified and final results are posted. Circumstances prevent me from closing out Contest #6 tomorrow evening; therefore...the verified forecasts and final results will posted late this evening.
The alternative is to wait until Saturday evening.
I would rather NEWxSFC Forecasters not wait that long to find out how well their forecasts verified.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: The Forecasts
Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 13
Forecasts are ranked by STP.
309 station forecasts.
RED - 75th percentile and above
BLUE - 25th percentile and below
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Heavy snow axis from BTV-CAR-BGR-PWM-CON-ORH-BGM-ALB-BTV.
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AO once again in the tank.
NAO with one toe in the water.
PNA MIA.
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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: FEB Totals
FEB/s snowfall totals were smokin'hot with 12 stations above normal.
New monthly record set at BDR.
As of the end of FEB...season-total snowfall to date (D-J-F) over the entire forecast area was 4% above normal.
DEC and JAN monthly totals here.
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GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts
Main event awaits Tuesday; however...call is going out early to capture snows across the M-A.
The contest for Storm #6 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SUN...17-MAR-13
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT MON...18-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.
Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Monday, March 11, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 3
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.
SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings. Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.
If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.
---
Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Final Results
| 1st - dryslot | ||
| SUMSQ: | 459.50 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -1.539 | |
| STP: | 43.50 | (9) |
| TAE: | 64.50 | (1) |
| AAE: | 2.58 | (1) |
| 2nd - RyanKrimm | ||
| SUMSQ: | 473.23 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -1.472 | |
| STP: | 40.00 | (8) |
| TAE: | 92.60 | (5) |
| AAE: | 3.70 | (6) |
| 3rd - donsutherland1 | ||
| SUMSQ: | 528.65 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -1.200 | |
| STP: | 16.70 | (3) |
| TAE: | 92.80 | (6) |
| AAE: | 3.57 | (4) |
| HM - Donald Rosenfeld | ||
| SUMSQ: | 577.19 | |
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.962 | |
| STP: | 9.50 | (1) |
| TAE: | 87.60 | (3) |
| AAE: | 3.50 | (3) |
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute errorAAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #5 at the Contest/s web site.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification
HYA STP estimate based on the gradient between Marston MIlls (3") and Centerville (1.5") per PNSBOX.
Six new daily records.
WED...06-MAR-13
IAD - 3.3" (0.2"; 1989)
THU...07-MAR-13
ISP - 2" (1"; 1999)
FRI...08-MAR-13
ORH - 14.9" (9"; 1941)
BOS - 10.5" (8"; 1941)
BDR - 9" (3.5"; 2005)
ALB - 6.5" (6.2"; 2005)
Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.
Final results and storm summary Sunday evening.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5 - The Forecasts!
Rookie 3
Intern 1
Journey 0
Senior 9
TOT 13
NEWxSFC welcomes its newest Rookie...RyanKrimm.
Good luck to all.
Entries ranked by STP.
309 station forecasts.
Consensus for heavy snow (+6") from EWR-BWI-IAD and ORH.
Plowable snows from BGR-PWN-CON-BOS-BDL-JFK-ABE-MDT-PHL.
NAO finally shows up!
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web page.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts! Redux
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| Snowfall -- liquid equivalent in mm -- |
The storm has come into better focus with the expected onset of frozen precipitation ~48 hours away at post-time. SUN/s 12z runs shifted the max snowfall action center from SW VA and smack dab into the Contest/s M-A forecast area.
Areas on the map inside the light green (10-15 mm) indicate the GFS forecast for at least 4" of snow assuming 10:1 frozen-to-melt water ratio.
HPC/s late afternoon charts restrict contest-worthy snows to the mountainous regions of WV...VA..and MD...largely a result of a 'major compromise' among competing solutions.
The contest for Storm #5 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST MON...04-MAR-13
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM TUE...05-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.
Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.
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