Winter '14 / '15 - 14th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecast Summary
Good to see everyone for the 14th Annual NE.Wx 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest.
Sixteen forecasters this year.
All veterans.
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As always, a wide range of forecasts with one lone forecaster/s season-total precipitation (STP) going under the NCDC period-of-record normal (P-O-R-N) season-total snowfall (934").
MIN STP: 866"
P-O-R-N: 934"
MAX STP: 1,546"
AVG STP: 1,175"
Median STP: 1,162"
Total number of station forecasts: 375
OVER: 307
UNDER: 67
P-O-R-N: 1
Blue cells: <= 25th percentile
Red cells: >= 75th percentile
P-O-R-N is the Period of Record Normal.
CONSENSUS is the average of all forecasts.
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No majority opinion for UNDER snows anywhere.
Unanimous opinion for OVER @ BGR .... CON ... and BOS.
Largest AVG OVER
PHL (168%)
BDR (146%)
BGR ... SBY (142%)
OVER / UNDER forecasts
RDU (9 / 7)
BDL ... BGM ... EWR (11 / 5)
ORH ... MDT ... SBY ... ORF (12 / 4)
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These prizes for 1st place will be delivered post-paid right to the forecaster/s front door.
"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/snowbooklet.php
"Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)
http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/snows-of-yesteryear/?_r=0
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Everyone's forecast is available on the Contest/s web site.
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