Winter '14 / '15 - November/s AO Predicts The State Of Winter/s AO

Does the sign of NOV/s Arctic Oscillation index (AO) of -0.530 have any predictive power for the sign of this winter/s AO?

The 2x2 contingency table below suggests it does.

At the 95% confidence level ... the Chi-square 'Test of Independence shows the negative sign of NOV/s AO and the AO sign for D-J-F are not independent but are related.  There/s a 2.8% probability the test indicates falsely they are not related.

Over the AO/s 64 year period-of-record ... the data shows when NOV is negative ... the winter/s AO will be also negative.

There/s also a statistically significant relationship between the negative sign of NOV/s AO and the sign of DEC/s AO.

False + ==> prediction is False
True + ==> prediction is True

AO Contingency
p = 0.028	Nov +	Nov -	Total
D-J-F +	15	8	23
D-J-F -	15	26	41
Total	30	34	64
True +	50%	24%	False +
False +	50%	76%	True +