Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results
Forecaster verifications and storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
| 1st - emoran | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 130 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.850 | |||
| STP: | 7.6 | (4) | ||
| TAE: | 40.1 | (1) | ||
| AAE: | 1.74 | (1) | ||
| 2nd - donsutherland1 | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 131 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.848 | |||
| STP: | 20.6 | (9) | ||
| TAE: | 45.2 | (4) | ||
| AAE: | 1.81 | (3) | ||
| 3rd - TQ | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 133 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.842 | |||
| STP: | 28.1 | (12) | ||
| TAE: | 49.3 | (6) | ||
| AAE: | 1.89 | (4) | ||
| HM - Brad Yehl | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 161 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.728 | |||
| STP: | 8.0 | (5) | ||
| TAE: | 43.1 | (2) | ||
| AAE: | 1.80 | (2) | ||
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors (")
STP: storm-total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(number): category rank
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Posts
7 comments:
Thanks for all the work you've done, but I must point out that I earned more discredit than you noted, I think all the missing "best station busts" in storm 2 belong to moi. Well done to the winners on that one, I needed another hour of snow to make my numbers work :)
-- Roger Smith
Thank you for noticing a significant error in my data processing.
Turns out ... 'copy down' doesn't work on hidden cells.
FIXED
Looks good, however one of my busts was also max forecast for ISP so that comment needs to be edited too (max forecast was not best at ISP unfortunately, I needed five minutes more snow or maybe ten). -- Roger Smith
Don't see where your ISP forecast error was the highest.
Observed: 14.3"
Your ISP forecast: 20"
Your ISP error: 5.7"
MAX bust forecast: 6" (kevinmyatt)
MAX bust forecast: 8.3"
What am I missing?
What you say above is correct but I meant that the highest forecast for ISP (mine at 20.0") was not best forecast as with BDL where the max was closest. Pretty trivial matter in any case. -- Roger Smith
Now I'm following you.
Appreciate your eagle eye.
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When I caption that image ... it's an eyeball evaluation.
In this case ... a miss.
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