CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - NOV/s Arctic Oscillation: Winter/s Leading Indicator

The sign of NOV/s Arctic Oscillation (AO) index has a statistically significant (Chi-square Test for Independence; p <= 0.05) association with the sign of the average AO index during meteorological winter (D-J-F).

 AO Contingency Table
 p = 0.046 Nov + Nov - Total
 D-J-F + 16 10 26
 D-J-F - 15 26 41
 Total 31 36 67
 True + 52% 28% False -
 False - 48% 72% True +

'True + (-)' indicates a true (false) prediction.

IOW ... if NOV/s AO is negative ... then there's a 72% chance the winter's average AO/s sign will also be negative ...

...and the association between the AO/s negative sign for NOV and D-J-F has a 28% 'false alarm rate' (FAR).

The relationship is nowhere near as strong when NOV/s AO is positive (48% FAR).

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Interesting ... albeit different ... relationship between NOV/s North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

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