CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 18-JAN-20 @ 1:15 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest

Snow Storm #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries has passed
Verification period: 01-DEC-19 through 31-MAR-20
The Forecasts here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - NOV/s Arctic Oscillation: Winter/s Leading Indicator

The sign of NOV/s Arctic Oscillation (AO) index has a statistically significant (Chi-square Test for Independence; p <= 0.05) association with the sign of the average AO index during meteorological winter (D-J-F).

 AO Contingency Table
 p = 0.046 Nov + Nov - Total
 D-J-F + 16 10 26
 D-J-F - 15 26 41
 Total 31 36 67
 True + 52% 28% False -
 False - 48% 72% True +

'True + (-)' indicates a true (false) prediction.

IOW ... if NOV/s AO is negative ... then there's a 72% chance the winter's average AO/s sign will also be negative ...

...and the association between the AO/s negative sign for NOV and D-J-F has a 28% 'false alarm rate' (FAR).

The relationship is nowhere near as strong when NOV/s AO is positive (48% FAR).

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Interesting ... albeit different ... relationship between NOV/s North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

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